Pac 12 Tourney Preview

Scrolling across ESPN’s bottom line came the statement “Pac 12 Locks: None.” In a year where no teams could muster any marquee out of conference wins, the Pac 12 has been ridiculed for its lack of success throughout the past few months. Joe Lunardi currently has both Washington and California as projected tournament teams, but both as double digit seeds. Now that the four horrendous Pac 12 teams are out of the way, let’s take a look at a wide open conference tournament.

#1 Washington (14-4) vs. #9 Oregon State (7-11) – In what should be the most entertaining (read: high scoring) game of the day Washington looks to beat Oregon State for the third time this year in quarterfinal action. Despite finishing in first place with a 14-4 conference record, Washington is not a lock to make the tournament, and per the odds makers’ was the fourth most likely team to win the Pac 12 tourney (+450). Washington beat the Beavers 95-80 at home in December and then snuck out a close 75-72 game in Corvallis. Oregon State and Washington were the two highest scoring teams in the Pac 12 this year with 79.6 and 74.9 ppg, respectively. These two teams were also the only Pac 12 teams to finish in the top 100 of Ken Pom’s tempo rankings. OSU finished #16, while Washington finished #22 (Note: This was the first year that Washington did not finish first in adjusted tempo).

Prediction: I’ll take Washington -4 in an up and down affair. Freshman stud Tony Wroten should be having a field day attacking the basket in LA. The big question is whether he will hit his first three pointer since January 28^th?

#4 Arizona (12-6) vs. #5 UCLA (11-7) – In a battle of two similarly skilled teams, the 4/5 match-up will be decided by which team can handle adversity better. UCLA is on a 3 game win streak (and ATS streak) after the infamous SI article came out last weekend. Meanwhile, Arizona just suspended freshman point guard Josiah Turner indefinitely. UCLA and Arizona split their regular season game with both teams defending their home turf.

Prediction: The pg loss for Arizona will be too much to overcome as UCLA goes on a 4 game win streak subsequent to the SI article. UCLA has the slightly more efficient D and the momentum. UCLA -3, Under 129.5

#2 California (13-5) vs. #7 Stanford (10-8) – California is the Pac 12 tourney favorite (per Vegas) and looks to avenge its loss to Stanford to close out the regular season. California enters the game on a two game losing streak, but is still projected to squeak into the NCAA tourney. Pac 12 POY Jorge Gutierrez and sophomore guard Allen Crabbe look to return California to their winning ways while star freshman Chasson Randle looks to continue his tear. In a game that is ripe for an upset, one area to watch is the offensive rebounding by Stanford. Stanford is 48^th in the country in Offensive rebound percentage and any extra second chance points could go a long way in determining if California is playing next weekend in the NCAA or NIT tourney.

#3 Oregon (13-5) vs. #6 Colorado (11-7) – Oregon is a dark horse candidate to win the Pac 12 tourney title behind superstar Devoe Joseph. Oregon is 11-3 in their last 14 games including a 46 point drubbing of cellar dweller Utah. Colorado surprised people all year by going 11-7 in the Pac 12. Both teams split their regular season match-ups with Colorado winning the first game by one point on a controversial foul call and then Oregon taking the re-match despite a halftime deficit. Only 3 of Colorado’s 11 wins came on the road (Utah, ASU, and USC) and could be in for a rough match-up on a neutral court.

Prediction – Oregon and Joseph will pull away for an easy win to continue their 4 game win streak.