2014-15 ACC Preview

ACC preview brought to you by Sean Moran and Stephen Kalayil:

Stephen Kalayil's Predictions; 

1. Louisville: In the toughest conference in college hoops, the Louisville Cardinals are my top team by the slimmest of margins. Replacing a player the caliber of Russ Smith is a tall order for most teams, but with budding sophomore star guard Terry Rozier and defensive ace, Chris Jones, the Cards backcourt might be better than last year. Obviously, the leader and preseason ACC POY Montrezl Harrell will be the key to this team. Harrell, known for his rim rocking jams and defensive intensity has added a mid range game to his arsenal. With that addition, I don’t see a big man in the country outside of Jahlil Okafor and Frank Kaminsky that could guard him one on one. Two big keys this season are the production of Wayne Blackshear in his senior season and the development of redshirt sophomore center Mangok Mathiang. If Blackshear and Mathiang pan out, the ACC better watch out. 

    

2. Duke:  Jahlil Okafor and Tyus Jones were just what Duke needed to become national title contenders. Okafor is projected as the #1 overall pick in the next NBA draft and Tyus Jones along with Quinn Cook will help from one of the best backcourts in the country.  Marshall Plumlee, Rasheed Sulaimon and Amile Jefferson along with Quinn Cook look to be the sage veterans that can mentor the freshman duo. Watch out for fellow freshman Justise Winslow and Grayson Allen to be solid contributors this year on a deep Duke squad.

3. UNC: Marcus Paige is easily the best scoring guard in the nation and will lead UNC to be a title contender. Paige averaged 18.7 PPG and had some of his best performances against high profile teams (Louisville, Kentucky, Duke, Syracuse).   The incoming class of Joel Berry, Justin Jackson and Theo Pinson will make an immediate impact and help ease the loss of James Michael McAdoo and the memories of the mercurial PJ Hairston.  The big keys to UNC’s season are the development of uber athletic forward Brice Johnson and the ultra skilled Kennedy Meeks. Both players had their moments last season, but need to be consistent for the Tar Heels to succeed. Also, if Isaiah Hicks can live up to his potential, UNC will have all the weapons to win it all.  

4. Virginia: The defending ACC champs will be returning the majority of their Sweet Sixteen team and will be able to make a run at the Final Four under Tony Bennett. I think UVA has the experience and great coaching to be considered with Louisville, Duke and UNC, but I do think the losses of Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell are going to hurt much more than most think. Look for Malcolm Brogdon, Justin Anderson and Mike Tobey to step up and lead UVA to a deep tourney run.  

5. Syracuse: The Orange are going to be tough this season with senior big man Rakeem Christmas and sharpshooting Trevor Cooney leading the way.  The big factors are if talented freshman Chris McCullough and Kaleb Joseph are able to step in and contribute immediately. One interesting player to keep an eye on is Indiana transfer Ron Patterson. Patterson has a versatile game and could be able to contribute immediately.      

POY: Montrezl Harrell (UofL)

Freshman of the Year: Jahlil Okafor (Duke)

ALL-ACC:

Montrezl Harrell (UofL) (F)

Marcus Paige (UNC) (G)

Jahlil Okafor (Duke) (C)

Olivier Hanlan (BC) (F)

Jerian Grant (Notre Dame) (G)

Surprise Freshman: Xavier Rathan-Mayes (FSU)

Surprise Player: Angel Rodriguez (Miami)

Most interesting thing you are looking to learn about the conference.  I’m interested to see the slugfest between Louisville, UNC, Duke and UVA. All of those teams have the tools to not just get to the Final Four, but to cut down the nets in March. Okafor vs. Harrell, Rozier vs. Paige, Paige vs. Tyus Jones are all individual matchups that I’m hyped to see.  Also, I’m curious to see who emerges from the middle of the pack of the ACC. Florida State, NC State, Pitt, Notre Dame and Miami are all excellent teams that can cause problems and make the NCAA tourney.  

Sean Moran's Top 5 Questions:

1. Will the ACC as a whole be any good?

Yes, yes, I know the ACC is now the “top” conference in college hoops with prestigious programs such as Duke, North Carolina, Syracuse, and Louisville in the mix. Add in a Top 10 UVA squad and have some serious competition. I am talking about the other part of the ACC. The part that was pretty much god awful last year outside of four to six programs. Last year Miami, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, BC, and Virginia Tech were all pushovers. Three of those schools got new coaches and Miami and Notre Dame welcome back returning players (Jerian Grant) or talented transfers. For the ACC to truly be the top conference in the country the pushovers will need to step their game up.

2. Will Virginia lose a home game in conference play?

The Cavaliers have gone two straight years without a loss in conference play while playing in John Paul Jones Arena. That’s 17 straight games which covers last year’s ACC championship winning season and the 2012-13 NIT season. The Cavs last lost in late February and early March of 2012 when they fell to UNC 51-54 and then Florida State 60-63. The first big test will come on Saturday, January 31 with a home game against Duke. The Cavs then head to Chapel Hill before returning home to play Louisville. 

3. How will Louisville cope in the post Russ Smith era?

The last three years were good to Cards fans. A final four, a championship, and a sweet 16 performance with Russ Smith leading the way. Last year he averaged 18.2 points per game and took a team high 481 shots (100+ more than the next closest starter). Sure, the Cardinals have a lot of returning pieces to work with including Montrezl Harrell and projected first round pick in Terry Rozier, but the loss of a three year beast cannot be understated. Add in a move to the ACC and how will the Cards fare in their first year without Russ.

4. Which player will surprise?

Last year Malcolm Brogdon was the conference surprise. He was UVA’s most consistent scorer and finished on the second team all-conference list. Who could surprise this year? Let’s stay with the Cavs for a minute. I think Anthony Gill has a legit shot at making first team all-ACC. The athletic power forward really came on at the end of the year scoring in double figures for six straight games before a sweet 16 loss to Michigan State. If he didn’t get hurt in that game, the Cavs might have won. With more playing time, the former Top 100 recruit will certainly surprise some people. Other possibilities include Isaiah Hicks of UNC and Michael Young of Pittsburgh.

5. Can N.C. State replace the POY?

Last year N.C. State went 9-9 in conference play and snuck into the NCAA tourney. TJ Warren led the way as he pretty much carried the Wolfpack with 24.9 points per game on 52.5% shooting. This year some of the younger players will need to step up. Cat Barber has the keys to the car with the transfer of Tyler Lewis and Trevor Lacey is a key transfer. Can Kyle Washington, Beejay Anya, and Abdul-Malik Abu handle things down low?

Surprise predictions:

Anthony Gill makes first team All-ACC and Justin Jackson gives Okafor a run for his money in freshman of the year voting. 

All Conference Week 7: ACC, P12, B10

ACC:

UVA dominated Syracuse this past weekend and won their first regular season ACC championship since 1981. While the unbalanced scheduling certainly takes some of the luster off of this achievement, there is no denying that the Cavaliers have been the class of the league the past two months with their suffocating defense. Meanwhile in a back and forth player of the year race there is one player that has elevated himself to the top of the class.

Player of the Year:

TJ Warren (NC State) – 24.5 ppg, 6.1 rpg

You can say what you want about NC State being a middle of the road team who most likely won’t make the NCAA tournament, but it is hard to dispute the fact that TJ Warren has been by far and away the best player in the league. In a one point loss against North Carolina, Warren was unstoppable putting up 36 points on 13-25 shooting. While he only put up 20 points on Saturday in a loss to Miami, he bounced back on Monday night by going for an ACC high 41 points in an upset road win against Pittsburgh going 16-22. Warren is first in the league in scoring by a wide margin averaging 24.5 points per game on 51.9% shooting. Despite being the focal point of every team’s defensive efforts he has shot over 50% in 10 out of his last 11 games which is pretty remarkable. Yes, NC State is an average team, but without Warren they would be at the bottom of the league fighting with the Hokies for last place honors. 

Players that could potentially steal votes away from Warren are Jabari Parker and Marcus Paige. Let’s start with Parker. The freshman is tough to guard in a one on one situation and is also a double-double machine, however Duke currently sits tied for third in the conference. Parker is also shooting just 43% from the field and plays absolutely no defense. I was hesitant about making him the Player of the Year last week and now he falls back to the first team. After hitting the game winning lay-up in a 35 point performance against N.C. State, Marcus Paige threw his hat in the ring for POY. Unfortunately he scored just 16 points over his next two games. There is no denying how important Paige has been to the Tar Heels resurgence, but his play has not been as consistent as Warren’s over the entire ACC schedule. One other thing to remember is that last year Erick Green was the ACC POY and his team won only four games.

All Conference Team:

Jabari Parker (Duke) – 16.8 ppg, 9.7 rpg

After three games in one week it was a quite one for Duke last week with only an easy win over the Virginia Tech Hokies. Parker had another subpar shooting performance going 3-11 from the floor but still put up 12 rebounds to go with his 11 points. Parker is currently shooting 43% from the floor and 29% from the three point line.

Marcus Paige (UNC) – 15.8 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 4.9 apg

Paige came back down to earth in two close wins over Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, but his performance against N.C. State removed any question about his first team status. In an overtime win against the Wolfpack, Paige hit seven three’s and put up 35 points, six rebounds, and five assists on 11-21 shooting. Oh yeah, he hit the game winning lay-up to boot. Not bad for a sophomore whose play has certainly turned the Tar Heels around after a 1-4 start in ACC play. During UNC’s twelve game win streak Paige is averaging 17.1 ppg despite being the main focus of opponent’s game in and game out.

Malcolm Brogdon (Virginia) – 15 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 3 apg, 1.4 spg

The red-shirt sophomore has been UVA’s best and most consistent player throughout their remarkable 16-1 conference run. Brogdon is the only player in the ACC to score in double figures every game. Against Cuse he went for 19 points, five rebounds, and five assists. A great all-around player, he also hit the game winning three at Pittsburgh to give the Cavaliers their biggest road win to-date and is the conference leader in free throw percentage.

C.J. Fair (Syracuse) – 16.2 ppg, 6.7 rpg and KJ McDaniels (Clemson) – 17.1 rpg, 7.7 rpg

It’s tough to give a first team award to just one of these two players. While Syracuse as a team has fallen off, Fair is still going strong averaging 17.1 ppg. He scored 28 in a loss to Georgia Tech and has scored in double figures in every game but one so far in the ACC. Meanwhile, Clemson was supposed to finish No. 14 in the conference and they sit at 10-7 thanks to the play of McDaniels. Over the weekend in a win against Maryland, McDaniels went for 26 points, 14 rebounds, and six blocks. He is currently second in the league in blocks and an absolute freak of nature.

Freshman of the Year:

Jabari Parker (Duke)

PAC-12:

Arizona clinched the PAC-12 regular season championship with a home win over Stanford on Sunday. After slipping against Arizona State, the Wildcats have righted the ship and are 4-0 over the past two weeks with a trip to Oregon on deck. UCLA has second place wrapped up even though they dropped a home game to Oregon when their top two players in Kyle Anderson and Jordan Adams were suspended.

Player of the Year:

Kyle Anderson (UCLA) – 15.2 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 6.9 apg

Despite missing the Oregon game due to a suspension, Anderson is still the PAC-12 player of the year due to his all around stellar play. After sitting out, Anderson went for 14 points, nine rebounds and five assists in a win against Oregon State. He puts up a near triple double every game and only has two games under 10 points.

All Conference Team:

Nick Johnson (Arizona) – 16 ppg, 4 rpg

Johnson will surely get a lot of PAC-12 POY votes and he is the best player on the best team in the league; however his play and shooting certainly went south for a stretch including a 5-20 performance against Arizona State. He scored 22 points in a blowout win against California on 7-14 shooting and then added 11 points in the conference clinching win against Stanford.

Delon Wright (Utah) – 17.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 4.9 apg

The Utah stat-stuffer was busy again in a rivalry win against Colorado. Wright went for 21 points on 7-9 shooting and added five rebounds and four assists. In his past two games he is 14-16 from the floor. The Utes have been outstanding at home and competitive all year with Wright being the main reason. He has scored in double figures in every game and has to be one of the most underrated players in the country.

Justin Cobbs (California) – 17.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 5.6 apg

Cobbs and the Bears struggled in a trip down to Arizona going 0-2 and certainly are not the same team that started conference play 5-0. Cobbs has scored in double figures in all games but one including 12 and 15 against Arizona and Arizona State, respectively. With two home games left, the Bears will need a strong weekend from their leader.

Jahii Carson (Arizona State) – 18.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.7 apg

The Sun Devils are 2-1 in their last three games and Carson has gone for 26, 9, and 28 in those games. When he scored 26 against Stanford he went an efficient 8-11 from the field and last night in a road loss in Eugene he went 10-19. Carson made it clear that he was going pro early this past weekend and has one game left against Oregon State to show off the speed and athletic ability that Sun Devil fans will soon miss.

Freshman of the Year:

Aaron Gordon (Arizona) – 11.9 ppg, 8.3 rpg

Gordon put together one of his best games in a win over Stanford with 19 points and 15 rebounds. After only scoring three points in a win against Utah, Gordon went for 23 and eight at Colorado and then scored 13 points against Cal. Gordon has been the front runner for this award all year; however Nigel Williams-Goss is not far behind. The Washington freshman is averaging 14.1 ppg, 4.4 rpg, and 3.9 apg while shooting 48 percent from the field.

Big 10:

The dust has finally settled from the Big 10 race and Michigan has emerged victorious after their blowout win in Champaign. Despite losing Mitch McGary, the Wolverines have only lost three games in one of, if not the toughest conference from top to bottom. 

Player of the Year:

Nick Stauskas (Michigan) – 16.8 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 3.6 apg

Stauskas struggled for a few games in the middle of the Big 10 season but was on fire this past week. In a win against Minnesota, Stauskas scored 21 points on 5-8 shooting from behind the arc and then followed that up against Illinois with seven threes. Throughout the Big 10 season Stauskas has been the leader of the Wolverines and is shooting 41-90 from the three point line.

All Conference Team:

Roy Devyn Marble (Iowa) – 18.5 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 3.3 apg

Iowa got back on the winning track with a win against Purdue and Marble continues his stellar play with 21 points and five assists. The athletic wing has scored in double figures in all Big 10 games and has 20 or more in four of his last five.

Terran Petteway (Nebraska) – 18.4 ppg, 4.9 rpg

After stellar play during Nebraska’s five game win streak, Petteway came back to earth going 5-18 in a loss to Illinois and then 3-12 in a win against Northwestern. Despite these shooting performances, Petteway has put together a stellar conference campaign highlighted by his 35 point, six rebound performance earlier in the year.

Gary Harris (Michigan State) – 17.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 2.6 apg

The Spartans are on a two game losing streak after another home loss over the weekend. Despite the losses, Harris has picked up his shooting with nine threes in the past two games. The pre-season conference player of the year has not lived up to that top billing but the Spartans usually don’t play their best until its tournament time.

Sam Decker (Wisconsin) – 12.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg

The Badgers have won seven games in a row and Decker’s versatility has been a main reason why. Against Indiana, Decker scored 16 points to go with seven rebounds and then added seven points and eight rebounds against Penn State.

Freshman of the Year:

Noah Vonleh (Indiana) – 11.8 ppg, 9.1 rpg

Vonleh missed Indiana’s last game, but he had 18 points and six rebounds in a win over Iowa. The future top 10 draft pick is almost averaging a double-double and has been in the leader seat for this award all year.