Robert Johnson Decision: The Odds

In late July 2012, Robert Johnson was coming off the bench for his DC Assault AAU team and was looking forward to his senior season at L.C. Bird high school just outside of Richmond, VA. At the time VCU and Shaka Smart were coming hard after the local product along with some other mid-majors such as Richmond, JMU, and East Carolina. Just over one year later Johnson is set to decide between Florida State, Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia. 

As a sophomore in high school, Johnson was known as one of the best shooters in Virginia. He led his L.C.Bird team in scoring and helped them to an appearance in the Virginia state championship where they fell to Florida guard Dorian Finney-Smith and his I.C. Norcom squad 54-45. In the loss, Johnson chipped in 10 points.

During his junior year, Johnson averaged a shade over 18 points per game and topped the 1,000 point mark as he earned all-district first team and All-Metro second team. While his team did not make it back to the state tournament, he did lead L.C. Bird to the regional semi-finals where they fell to Petersburg in a close contest.

After his junior year, Johnson made the choice to play AAU with DC Assault on the Under Armour circuit. He joined up with guards Nate Britt, Roddy Peters, and Nigel Johnson while playing under former Wizards and current Rutgers head coach Eddie Jordan. As both Britt and Peters were ACC bound, Johnson came off the bench during AAU play. Despite not starting, Johnson did have his moments especially when Peters re-injured his shoulder during the UA Summer Jam in Milwaukee. Playing against the Atlanta Celtics, Johnson provided a much needed boost and lit up the 2-3 zone the Celtics were playing. He showed off his shooting touch and was one of the more impressive players in the tournament.

While Johnson had various high majors sniffing around, a crucial decision soon changed his recruiting landscape. Before the 2012-13 school year Johnson transferred to Benedictine, a private school in Richmond. Along with the transfer, he also re-classified grades and played as a junior once more. During this season, Johnson was a key part of a Benedictine team that won the Virginia Independent schools championship. After the championship run, Johnson switched AAU teams as well and joined up with the local Boo Williams AAU squad that plays on the Nike EYBL circuit.

Johnson took the EYBL circuit by storm and went for 17 points in his first game with Boo Williams in L.A. and scored in double figures in all nine games during the first two live April recruiting sessions. Along with his double figure scoring, Johnson also dropped in 22 three’s at a 37% clip.

In late June, the buzz behind Johnson started to swell even more with his performance at the NBPA Top 100 Camp. Going against some of the most talented players in the country, Johnson averaged 10 points per game and caught the attention of most bystanders with his shooting and play at both guard positions.

Back on the AAU circuit in July, Johnson had his coming out party at the Peach Jam in front of every big named coach in college basketball. Playing against one of the title favorites in his first game, Johnson struggled throughout against the Mac Irvin Fire. With his team trailing in the final two minutes, Johnson came alive and scored at will including the go-ahead bucket. While his team was forced to forfeit its games due to the use of an ineligible player, Johnson still showcased his skills over the next four games. In front of Tom Crean and Roy Williams, Johnson went for 22 points a game and hit 16 out of 32 three’s. During the three day stretch, Johnson was one of the top performers and cemented his place as one of the best shooters in the class of 2014.

After careful consideration, Johnson eventually narrowed his list down to a final four and visited each school in a four week period beginning August 24th. Each school has its pros and cons and will make for a difficult decision for Johnson.

Odds:

North Carolina: +140: UNC has vaulted into the top spot over the past few days, but just barely. The school is within a close proximity of the Johnson household and gives Robert a chance to suit up for one of the college basketball blue bloods. He has been pitched on being the shooter the UNC needs to fill out the 2014 class. While UNC needs a shooter, they also already have one point guard and two wing players committed. The playing time issue has to be Johnson’s greatest concern regarding the Heels.

Virginia: +180: Tony Bennett and the Cavaliers are just a stone’s throw away from Richmond, VA. In his short tenure at UVA, Bennett has built a team that has a strong foundation for the future. If he committed, Johnson would be the main piece of the 2014 class to go along with BJ Stith. Ample playing time would await Johnson, but UVA plays at one of the slowest paces in college basketball. For someone that likes to get up and down, is this the type of system that Johnson wants to play in?

Indiana: +220: A few weeks ago it seemed like Indiana was the leader in the clubhouse. After the official visit, Tom Crean and Indiana stood in a great spot, but then Johnson continued on his college tour and the initial shine wore off. Despite being able to feature Johnson as the main recruit in 2014, all signs indicate that Indiana’s bluster has faded.

Florida State: +300: Despite having recruited Johnson the longest of the other three, the Noles come in as the large underdog. Ample playing time would await Johnson down in Tallahassee, but it will be tough for the Seminoles to overcome the prestige of North Carolina and Indiana along with the proximity of Virginia.