Robert Johnson Decision: The Odds

In late July 2012, Robert Johnson was coming off the bench for his DC Assault AAU team and was looking forward to his senior season at L.C. Bird high school just outside of Richmond, VA. At the time VCU and Shaka Smart were coming hard after the local product along with some other mid-majors such as Richmond, JMU, and East Carolina. Just over one year later Johnson is set to decide between Florida State, Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia. 

As a sophomore in high school, Johnson was known as one of the best shooters in Virginia. He led his L.C.Bird team in scoring and helped them to an appearance in the Virginia state championship where they fell to Florida guard Dorian Finney-Smith and his I.C. Norcom squad 54-45. In the loss, Johnson chipped in 10 points.

During his junior year, Johnson averaged a shade over 18 points per game and topped the 1,000 point mark as he earned all-district first team and All-Metro second team. While his team did not make it back to the state tournament, he did lead L.C. Bird to the regional semi-finals where they fell to Petersburg in a close contest.

After his junior year, Johnson made the choice to play AAU with DC Assault on the Under Armour circuit. He joined up with guards Nate Britt, Roddy Peters, and Nigel Johnson while playing under former Wizards and current Rutgers head coach Eddie Jordan. As both Britt and Peters were ACC bound, Johnson came off the bench during AAU play. Despite not starting, Johnson did have his moments especially when Peters re-injured his shoulder during the UA Summer Jam in Milwaukee. Playing against the Atlanta Celtics, Johnson provided a much needed boost and lit up the 2-3 zone the Celtics were playing. He showed off his shooting touch and was one of the more impressive players in the tournament.

While Johnson had various high majors sniffing around, a crucial decision soon changed his recruiting landscape. Before the 2012-13 school year Johnson transferred to Benedictine, a private school in Richmond. Along with the transfer, he also re-classified grades and played as a junior once more. During this season, Johnson was a key part of a Benedictine team that won the Virginia Independent schools championship. After the championship run, Johnson switched AAU teams as well and joined up with the local Boo Williams AAU squad that plays on the Nike EYBL circuit.

Johnson took the EYBL circuit by storm and went for 17 points in his first game with Boo Williams in L.A. and scored in double figures in all nine games during the first two live April recruiting sessions. Along with his double figure scoring, Johnson also dropped in 22 three’s at a 37% clip.

In late June, the buzz behind Johnson started to swell even more with his performance at the NBPA Top 100 Camp. Going against some of the most talented players in the country, Johnson averaged 10 points per game and caught the attention of most bystanders with his shooting and play at both guard positions.

Back on the AAU circuit in July, Johnson had his coming out party at the Peach Jam in front of every big named coach in college basketball. Playing against one of the title favorites in his first game, Johnson struggled throughout against the Mac Irvin Fire. With his team trailing in the final two minutes, Johnson came alive and scored at will including the go-ahead bucket. While his team was forced to forfeit its games due to the use of an ineligible player, Johnson still showcased his skills over the next four games. In front of Tom Crean and Roy Williams, Johnson went for 22 points a game and hit 16 out of 32 three’s. During the three day stretch, Johnson was one of the top performers and cemented his place as one of the best shooters in the class of 2014.

After careful consideration, Johnson eventually narrowed his list down to a final four and visited each school in a four week period beginning August 24th. Each school has its pros and cons and will make for a difficult decision for Johnson.

Odds:

North Carolina: +140: UNC has vaulted into the top spot over the past few days, but just barely. The school is within a close proximity of the Johnson household and gives Robert a chance to suit up for one of the college basketball blue bloods. He has been pitched on being the shooter the UNC needs to fill out the 2014 class. While UNC needs a shooter, they also already have one point guard and two wing players committed. The playing time issue has to be Johnson’s greatest concern regarding the Heels.

Virginia: +180: Tony Bennett and the Cavaliers are just a stone’s throw away from Richmond, VA. In his short tenure at UVA, Bennett has built a team that has a strong foundation for the future. If he committed, Johnson would be the main piece of the 2014 class to go along with BJ Stith. Ample playing time would await Johnson, but UVA plays at one of the slowest paces in college basketball. For someone that likes to get up and down, is this the type of system that Johnson wants to play in?

Indiana: +220: A few weeks ago it seemed like Indiana was the leader in the clubhouse. After the official visit, Tom Crean and Indiana stood in a great spot, but then Johnson continued on his college tour and the initial shine wore off. Despite being able to feature Johnson as the main recruit in 2014, all signs indicate that Indiana’s bluster has faded.

Florida State: +300: Despite having recruited Johnson the longest of the other three, the Noles come in as the large underdog. Ample playing time would await Johnson down in Tallahassee, but it will be tough for the Seminoles to overcome the prestige of North Carolina and Indiana along with the proximity of Virginia.

Adidas Nations: Carlton Bragg

Many of the USA underclassmen struggled this past weekend competing against their older peers at the Adidas Nations in California; however power forward Carlton Bragg did not fall into that category.  

Bragg is a 6’8” forward out of Cleveland, OH and he capped off a fantastic summer by turning in one of the most impressive underclassmen performances of the weekend. In three games Bragg averaged 11.3 points and 3.3 rebounds per game while shooting 54% from the field, 60% from three, and 83% from the line. 

Carlton Bragg - Kelly Kline/Adidas

The sample size was small, but Bragg’s performance level increased throughout each game culminating with an 18 point, 4 rebound performance against the USA team featuring Jahlil Okafor, Kevon Looney, and Stanley Johnson. 

“I’ve been doing pretty well,” said Bragg. “I’ve progressed a lot, really, with all of the talent out here. It feels good, lots of great competition.”

In this game, Bragg had both his inside and outside game firing on all cylinders. He ran the court well and finished down low with several vicious right handed dunks. Bragg scored several times on post moves, but he also knocked down several mid-range jump shots and a three pointer.

“My motor, getting back and forth, and my inside game are my strongest areas,” said Bragg. “I’ve been working a lot on my outside game though.”

The work paid off as the long and athletic forward showcased his new and improved outside jump shot. Bragg’s shot mechanics and follow through looked good and even when he missed, his shot was right on target.  

He also displayed a set of intangible attributes that not many players possess. A high functioning motor and a joy for the game were evident when watching Bragg on and off the court. Despite a double digit deficit to the older USA team, Bragg still went 100% and when on the bench he was busy cheering on his teammates and shouting out encouragement. 

“Oh yeah,” said Bragg with a smile. “I’m always trying to get into the game on the court and the bench.”

Bragg wrapped up his sophomore year with a state championship at Villa Angela-St. Joseph’s and began the spring ranked20^th in his class. He slowly worked his way up the rankings after stellar play at the Pitt Jam Fest in April and the Spiece Run N Slam in May. 

He entered the summer at the number 12 spot, but after a dominant performance at the Adidas Invitational he will most likely see his ascent up the ranking list continue. 

While his overall ranking keeps increasing, so does the attention from college coaches. In June, Bragg took unofficial visits to Illinois and Ohio State and he wants to get to Indiana and Kentucky. 

If the past few months are any indication, Bragg is just starting to scratch the surface of his potential. While some of his peers struggled this past weekend, Bragg stepped up to the challenge and went blow for blow with the top players in the senior class.

Indiana Elite - Blast from the Past

In May 2008, the Bob Gibbons Tournament of Champions (TOC) was the country’s premier spring AAU tournament. As the top tournament in the land, numerous high major prospects were busy running up and down the hallowed courts of Cameron Indoor and the Dean Dome. While spectators were drawn to the run and gun style of John Wall and the powerful dunks of Derrick Favors throughout the tournament, there was a squad from Indiana that quietly went about their business. This 17-U Indiana Elite squad fell short as they lost to Favors’ Atlanta Celtics squad in the semi-finals; however it is this AAU team that is impacting the 2012-13 college basketball season. Mason Plumlee (Duke), DJ Byrd (Purdue), and Jordan Hulls (Indiana) were integral components of this high powered AAU squad, and now this senior trio is playing a key role for their respective college teams almost five years later. 

Mason Plumlee (6’11 – Ranked #20 by Scout.com)

Plumlee

As a senior, Mason Plumlee is currently putting together the best season of his college career. After debating about going pro following his junior season, Plumlee is currently a leading candidate for player of the year. Plumlee is averaging 18.8 points per game and 11.2 rebounds with a 118.5 offensive efficiency rating for the #1 team in the country. During the Tournament of Champions, Plumlee notched a double-double with 14 points and 11 rebounds in his first ever game at Cameron Indoor. Already a Duke commit, Plumlee was the top player on the Indiana Elite squad and a top 20 player nationally. During the tournament he out-played his fellow Duke teammate Ryan Kelly before falling to Derrick Favors and his Atlanta Celtics squad. While Favors moved on quickly to the NBA after one season in the ACC, Plumlee is in the midst of putting together an extremely impressive senior campaign.  

DJ Byrd (6’5” – Ranked #28 SF by Scout.com)

DJ Byrd

Bryd was the rough and tough sharp shooting wing for the loaded Elite squad and the made his name knocking down three pointers from the wing similar to what he is currently doing for the Purdue Boilermakers in West Lafayette, IN. Byrd scored 15 points including several three pointers during a 16-3 second-half run that fueled an upset of the favored Illinois Illini in the first Big 10 match-up of the season. With the departure of Robbie Hummell, the former 3-star small forward is playing a career high 30 minutes per game and will be a key factor in determining how this young Boilermaker team fares in the stacked Big 10 this year. 

Jordan Hulls (6’0” – Ranked #51 by Scout.com)

Jordan Hulls

Prior to the TOC in North Carolina, Jordan Hulls, a Bloomington native gave new Indiana coach Tom Crean his 4^th commitment in the class of 2009. Upon seeing Hulls run the point for Indiana Elite and bury three pointers during the TOC it was easy to picture him as the prototypical Hoosier point guard. Upon committing to Indiana, Hulls noted that he was looking forward to running Crean’s offense and that “within the next couple of years IU will be back for sure.” While Hulls has spent many times running Crean’s offense through his first three years he has currently been playing more off the ball with prized freshman Yogi Ferrell in the mix (also a former Indiana Elite player). With Ferrell running the point, Hulls’ utilization rate has decreased approximately 17%; however his offensive efficiency rating has increased 17%. Hulls currently has an outstanding 141.2 offensive efficiency rating (#2 in the country) and is shooting a career best 51.4% from behind the three point line. Years after committing to Indiana, Hulls is still burying three pointers and helping fulfill his prediction of returning Indiana to national relevance.  

This Indiana Elite AAU squad took a backseat to the Atlanta Celtics during this particular tournament in 2008 and the trio discussed above did not make the flashy headlines during their inaugural freshman campaign in 2009 like John Wall and Derrick Favors. Despite falling short in this tournament, the Indiana Elite squad racked up numerous championship trophies during the spring and summer and now as seniors this trio has grabbed the college basketball headlines of 2013. Plumlee has turned into a player of the year candidate, Byrd turned into a go-to guy on an up and coming team, and Hulls turned into the most efficient player on IU. While a championship eluded this group in the most prestigious spring AAU tournament in 2008, individually each of these players hopes they can capture the prestigious NCAA tournament championship in 2013.