A Celtics Surprise: Jonathan Isaac

Last year the Boston Celtics had the third pick in the NBA Draft. Nobody knew exactly what Danny Ainge was planning on doing as the team worked out a plethora of guys including Jamal Murray, Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield, Jaylen Brown, Marquese Chriss, and Dragan Bender.

Kris Dunn was the consensus pick in the mock drafts leading up to the actual selection, but in a mild surprise, the Celtics selected Jaylen Brown, the powerful freshman from California who was sitting at the 8^th slot in those same mocks.

This year, after trading away the top pick in the draft to the Philadelphia 76ers, the consensus is that the Celtics will take either Josh Jackson or Jayson Tatum. Jackson is an elite defender with the size and athleticism that Ainge craves, while Tatum is the most skilled player from an offensive standpoint in the draft.

Will the Celtics do what most people expect of them or will they cause another mild draft day surprise?

For me, it won’t come as a surprise if Adam Silver has the following declaration on Thursday night: “With the third pick in the 2017 NBA Draft, the Boston Celtics select Jonathan Isaac from Florida State University.”

Full disclosure: I love Jonathan Isaac’s game. Even though I saw him in person the least amount of any 1-and-done prospect, it only took one jump shot in the Lexington EYBL to appreciate his skill-set.

For the Celtics, Amir Johnson’s $12 million dollars comes off the books this year leaving the Celtics with basically Kelly Olynyk as a stretch 4. While Olynyk killed the Wizards in Game 7, this is easily their weakest position.

So why go with Isaac who is 6’11”, but just over 200 pounds, especially considering how Ainge loves players with physical toughness?

OFFENSE:

In his one season at FSU, Isaac averaged 12.0 points and 7.8 rebounds in 26 minutes shooting 51% from the field, 35% from 3, and 78% from the line. Good numbers, but certainly not eye-popping.

While he shot just 35% from the 3-point line, Isaac has such a tight and compact shooting form, that he should have no problem with the extended NBA line and should increase his overall percentage in the years to come. He took 2.8 3PTA’s per game at Florida State where fans got used to watching Isaac’s high arcing shot fall through the net.

Isaac was rarely used in pick and pop scenarios at Florida State, but one would imagine this would soon become a big part of his game at the next level. With the NBA quickly moving away from the true back to the basket big, Isaac will give the Celtics someone who is 6’11” with an NBA ready 3-point stroke at the power forward position.

In ACC play, Isaac finished with the 10^th best ORtg per KenPom at 122.1. He also finished in the top 10 in True Shooting %, Free Throw Rate and was top 15 in Fouls Drawn per 40 minutes. Going deeper into his freshman season, Isaac registered 361 possessions where he scored 1.025 points per possession (86^th percentile). Almost 47% of his time came in spot-up situations or transition, but surprisingly he was most effective off basket cuts where he registered 1.656 PPP as well as put-backs on short offensive rebounds.

In college, Isaac was rarely in iso situations, which was just like his high school and AAU days:

• PRO: With the agility and athleticism of a guard, Isaac frequently used his dribble to freeze defenders before utilizing a smooth pull-up jumper.
• CON: He lacks the required ball-handling skill (i.e. crossover, in and out dribble) to fully beat his defender off the dribble which results in pull-up jumpers and contested drives to the basket.

He also utilizes a jab step to keep defenders off-balance and a quick first step on players who close out to quickly on him.

• PRO: With his first step, Isaac gets by his defenders’ shoulders in one quick movement.
• CON: He lacked the necessary strength and explosion to finish at the rim often being forced to double-clutch his contested shot at the rim or have his shot altered.

The creative ball-handling ability will be the toughest thing for Isaac to come by, but the pull-up jumper will be a strong tool to use against slower defenders, while a NBA workout regimen should help Isaac with his strength and explosiveness.

DEFENSE:

On the defensive side, Isaac’s numbers were eye popping. In ACC play, Isaac finished second in the league in defensive rebounding percentage behind only Bonzie Colson as he grabbed 24.9% of his opportunities. Isaac finished third in block %, just ahead of John Collins, and 18^th in steal percentage, just ahead of Joel Berry. With good coordination and a 7’1” wing span, Isaac can guard 3’s and 4’s while also offering the alluring potential to switch onto almost any player after a pick and roll.

In ACC play, Isaac matched up with wings, stretch 4’s, and post players. One such player that matched-up with Isaac was Jayson Tatum. Now, these two certainly didn’t match-up on every possession, but Isaac did a good job moving laterally on the perimeter to frustrate Tatum, who shot just 7-17 in the match-up. Tatum made one shot on Isaac and that came from a pick and roll with Isaac being late to recover to the top of the key.

GROWTH:

Isaac certainly has room to grow from a strength stand-point, as well as a skill stand point, but let’s not forget that he was a late bloomer. It wasn’t until after Isaac’s sophomore season (May 2014) when he received his first write-up on Scout.com from Evan Daniels:

“Easily the biggest revelation of the day came from the first game of the day. Isaac, a slight 6-foot-6 wing with lengthy arms, came out firing against the Upward Stars. Isaac, a confident shooter, made three long-range shots, including one from well past the line. Isaac competed on defense, was active the entire game and showed impressive mobility. After his stirring performance Isaac told Scout.com that not one school is recruiting him.”

At this point in time, Tatum and Jackson had firmly supplanted themselves in the discussion for top player in the 2016 class while Isaac was virtually unheard of. It wasn’t until the spring AAU circuit after Isaac’s junior season until he really started to climb the ranks. He entered the spring 2015 AAU season barely ranked in the Top 50 and finished in the Top 10.

Isaac still has room to grow his game and his body and can do so in Boston as their next piece to an ever expanding puzzle. The Celtics are loaded at the guard and wing spots, but are certainly lacking when it comes to front-court talent. As a modern day stretch 4, Isaac would provide positional flexibility on both offense and defense for Brad Stevens with his ability to shoot from the outside while guarding jitter-bug guards to tall and lanky forwards with his 7’1” reach.  

6’11” shooters with athleticism don’t grow on trees. The Boston Celtics have one of the best coaches in the game and a staff that would put Isaac in situations to succeed as he works on his weaknesses (Strength, Ball-Handling, Consistency) and overall skill-set. Jonathan Isaac represents a player that Ainge can continue to mold into the Celtics future. Sure, Jackson or Tatum is the likely pick, but when has Ainge conformed to outside expectations?