Robert Johnson Decision: The Odds

In late July 2012, Robert Johnson was coming off the bench for his DC Assault AAU team and was looking forward to his senior season at L.C. Bird high school just outside of Richmond, VA. At the time VCU and Shaka Smart were coming hard after the local product along with some other mid-majors such as Richmond, JMU, and East Carolina. Just over one year later Johnson is set to decide between Florida State, Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia. 

As a sophomore in high school, Johnson was known as one of the best shooters in Virginia. He led his L.C.Bird team in scoring and helped them to an appearance in the Virginia state championship where they fell to Florida guard Dorian Finney-Smith and his I.C. Norcom squad 54-45. In the loss, Johnson chipped in 10 points.

During his junior year, Johnson averaged a shade over 18 points per game and topped the 1,000 point mark as he earned all-district first team and All-Metro second team. While his team did not make it back to the state tournament, he did lead L.C. Bird to the regional semi-finals where they fell to Petersburg in a close contest.

After his junior year, Johnson made the choice to play AAU with DC Assault on the Under Armour circuit. He joined up with guards Nate Britt, Roddy Peters, and Nigel Johnson while playing under former Wizards and current Rutgers head coach Eddie Jordan. As both Britt and Peters were ACC bound, Johnson came off the bench during AAU play. Despite not starting, Johnson did have his moments especially when Peters re-injured his shoulder during the UA Summer Jam in Milwaukee. Playing against the Atlanta Celtics, Johnson provided a much needed boost and lit up the 2-3 zone the Celtics were playing. He showed off his shooting touch and was one of the more impressive players in the tournament.

While Johnson had various high majors sniffing around, a crucial decision soon changed his recruiting landscape. Before the 2012-13 school year Johnson transferred to Benedictine, a private school in Richmond. Along with the transfer, he also re-classified grades and played as a junior once more. During this season, Johnson was a key part of a Benedictine team that won the Virginia Independent schools championship. After the championship run, Johnson switched AAU teams as well and joined up with the local Boo Williams AAU squad that plays on the Nike EYBL circuit.

Johnson took the EYBL circuit by storm and went for 17 points in his first game with Boo Williams in L.A. and scored in double figures in all nine games during the first two live April recruiting sessions. Along with his double figure scoring, Johnson also dropped in 22 three’s at a 37% clip.

In late June, the buzz behind Johnson started to swell even more with his performance at the NBPA Top 100 Camp. Going against some of the most talented players in the country, Johnson averaged 10 points per game and caught the attention of most bystanders with his shooting and play at both guard positions.

Back on the AAU circuit in July, Johnson had his coming out party at the Peach Jam in front of every big named coach in college basketball. Playing against one of the title favorites in his first game, Johnson struggled throughout against the Mac Irvin Fire. With his team trailing in the final two minutes, Johnson came alive and scored at will including the go-ahead bucket. While his team was forced to forfeit its games due to the use of an ineligible player, Johnson still showcased his skills over the next four games. In front of Tom Crean and Roy Williams, Johnson went for 22 points a game and hit 16 out of 32 three’s. During the three day stretch, Johnson was one of the top performers and cemented his place as one of the best shooters in the class of 2014.

After careful consideration, Johnson eventually narrowed his list down to a final four and visited each school in a four week period beginning August 24th. Each school has its pros and cons and will make for a difficult decision for Johnson.

Odds:

North Carolina: +140: UNC has vaulted into the top spot over the past few days, but just barely. The school is within a close proximity of the Johnson household and gives Robert a chance to suit up for one of the college basketball blue bloods. He has been pitched on being the shooter the UNC needs to fill out the 2014 class. While UNC needs a shooter, they also already have one point guard and two wing players committed. The playing time issue has to be Johnson’s greatest concern regarding the Heels.

Virginia: +180: Tony Bennett and the Cavaliers are just a stone’s throw away from Richmond, VA. In his short tenure at UVA, Bennett has built a team that has a strong foundation for the future. If he committed, Johnson would be the main piece of the 2014 class to go along with BJ Stith. Ample playing time would await Johnson, but UVA plays at one of the slowest paces in college basketball. For someone that likes to get up and down, is this the type of system that Johnson wants to play in?

Indiana: +220: A few weeks ago it seemed like Indiana was the leader in the clubhouse. After the official visit, Tom Crean and Indiana stood in a great spot, but then Johnson continued on his college tour and the initial shine wore off. Despite being able to feature Johnson as the main recruit in 2014, all signs indicate that Indiana’s bluster has faded.

Florida State: +300: Despite having recruited Johnson the longest of the other three, the Noles come in as the large underdog. Ample playing time would await Johnson down in Tallahassee, but it will be tough for the Seminoles to overcome the prestige of North Carolina and Indiana along with the proximity of Virginia.

Terry Larrier and VCU

One day after taking an official visit to Virginia Commonwealth University, small forward Terry Larrier committed to play for Shaka Smart and the Rams. A fringe top 50 recruit, the 6’7” Larrier becomes Smart’s highest rated recruit throughout his tenure.

This past spring and summer Larrier vaulted up the recruiting rankings as he played for Team Scan on the Nike EYBL circuit. The Bronx native averaged 10.2 points and 5.8 rebounds per game in 17 regular season games and then duplicated his effort with 10.3 points per game throughout the Peach Jam.

A long and lanky wing, Larrier fits the HAVOC style preferred by Smart. He specializes in slashing to the basket for lay-ups and dunks and uses his 6’10” wing span to disrupt opponents on the defensive end. 

During the Dallas EYBL in May, Larrier’s stock rose after a solid performance over a four game period. One month later he was one of the most impressive talents at the Kevin Durant Skills Academy in Washington D.C. While the camp was littered with the top shooting guards and small forwards in the country, Larrier stood out during the scrimmages as he drove time and time again from the left wing for thunderous dunks down the lane.

While Larrier is known for his athletic forays to the basket, he does need to work on his ball-handling and shooting ability. He is more than capable of knocking down jump shots from 15-19 feet but shot only 23% from the three point line during the EYBL regular season. In the Peach Jam he increased his percentage to 36.4% while making one more three in 11 less games. 

With Larrier’s commitment, VCU now has three commitments in the class of 2014. Forward Justin Tillman from Michigan committed over Labor Day weekend and point guard Jonathan Williams declared in May. 

Locking up an athletic small forward was crucial for the VCU coaching staff after several early misses. Small forward Vic Law out of Chicago decided to stay local and play for Northwestern earlier on in the summer while Devin Robinson, a top 30 player nationally left VCU out of his top five. Robinson, a Richmond native had VCU at the top of his list before the AAU season began but after several stellar performances had schools such as Indiana, UConn, and Florida knocking on his door. 

VCU’s HAVOC style of play is perfect for Larrier and his skill set as both parties came to that realization after a timely official visit.    

Lamonte Bearden and Buffalo

Back in mid-July in Mequon, WI, senior point guard Lamonte Bearden turned out to be one of the top players in the stacked Under Armour Summer Jam tournament as he led his Wisconsin Swing AAU team to the semi-finals. While Bearden was busy winning converts with his play, Bobby Hurley, the newly name coach at Buffalo University and his assistant Nate Oats were parked on the bleacher seats throughout the five day event. In a surprise move Tuesday evening, Bearden announced that he had committed to Hurley and the Bulls.

Fresh off a disappointing 14-20 season the Bulls fired long time coach Reggie Witherspoon on March 15, 2013 and hired Rhode Island assistant Bobby Hurley less than two weeks later. It didn’t take long for Hurley and his staff to hit the AAU circuit as they were first spotted hanging out with the high major coaches at the Pitt Jam Fest in April. This trend continued in July where both Hurley and Oats were mixed in with many of the big name coaches at the Summer Jam. Their effort paid off by nabbing Bearden, the four star point guard straight out of the Midwest.

This past year, the 6’2” Bearden joined up with Indiana recruit Luke Fischer to help bring a second state championship and second straight 28-0 season back to Germantown, WI. During the year, Bearden averaged 13.1 points and 5.2 assists per game. 

After winning the state championship Bearden spent the spring and summer playing in AAU events primarily throughout the Midwest in addition to a trip to Las Vegas for the Fab 48. As noted above, Bearden led his team to the semi-finals during the second live recruiting session at the prestigious Summer Jam. He averaged 13 points per game and was very effective throughout the tournament at dribble penetration. Bearden likes to push the tempo and keep defenders off balance with his hesitation dribble. He can finish at the rim consistently and keeps defenders honest with his mid-range jump shot. While not on the same level athletically, the way Bearden dribbled the ball up the court and moved on offense was eerily reminiscent of future Florida point guard Kasey Hill.

Bearden was one of the top stock risers this past summer and the newly mined Buffalo staff cashed in with one of the surprise commitments of the year.

Class of 2014 Rankings: Post Summer

#	Name	Pos	HT/ WT	High School (ST)	College
1	Jahlil Okafor	C	6-11/260	Whitney Young (IL)
2	Tyus Jones	PG	6-1/175	Apple Valley (MN)
3	Rashad Vaughn	SG	6-5/185	Findlay Prep (NV)
4	Emmanuel Mudiay	PG	6-4/190	Prime Prep (TX)
5	Stanley Johnson	SF	6-6/225	Mater Dei (CA)
6	Cliff Alexander	C	6-9/240	Curie (IL)
7	Myles Turner	C	7-0/240	Trinity (TX)
8	Trey Lyles	PF	6-9/210	Arsenal Tech (IN)
9	Justin Jackson	SF	6-7/180	HCYA (TX)	North Carolina
10	Kevon Looney	PF	6-8/210	Hamilton (WI)
11	Justise Winslow	SF	6-6/205	St. John's (TX)
12	Karl Towns	C	6-10/225	St. Joseph (NJ)	Kentucky
13	Devin Booker	SG	6-4/175	Moss Point (MS)
14	JaQuan Lyle	PG	6-4/200	Bosse (IN)	Louisville
15	Isaiah Whitehead	SG	6-4/195	Lincoln (NY)
16	Craig Victor	PF	6-8/225	Findlay Prep (NV)	Arizona
17	D'Angelo Russell	SG	6-4/180	Montverde Academy (FL)	Ohio State
18	Joel Berry	PG	6-1/185	Lake Highland Prep (FL)	North Carolina
19	Reid Travis	PF	6-7/215	De La Salle (MN)
20	Josh Perkins	PG	6-2/180	Huntington Prep (WV)
21	Theo Pinson	SF	6-5/170	Wesleyan Christian (NC)	North Carolina
22	Devin Robinson	PF	6-8/180	Christchurch School (VA)
23	JaQuan Newton	SG	6-1/165	Neumann-Goretti (PA)	Miami
24	Jonah Bolden	SF	6-8/185	Findlay Prep (NV)
25	Chris McCullough	PF	6-9/205	Brewster Academy (NH)	Syracuse
26	Romelo Trimble	PG	6-3/185	Bishop O'Connell (VA)	Maryland
27	Kelly Oubre	SF	6-6/195	Findlay Prep (NV)
28	Daniel Hamilton	SF	6-7/175	St. John Bosco (CA)	Connecticut
29	Dwayne Morgan	SF	6-7/205	St. Frances (MD)	UNLV
30	Tyler Ulis	PG	5-8/150	Marian Catholic (IL)
31	Joe Burton	SF	6-5/180	Atascocita (TX)
32	Shaqquan Aaron	SF	6-7/175	Rainier Beach (WA)	Louisville
33	Kameron Chatman	SF	6-7/200	Long Beach Poly (CA)
34	Keita Bates-Diop	SF	6-7/185	University (IL)	Ohio State
35	Jordan McLaughlin	PG	6-0/165	Etiwanda (CA)
36	Leron Black	PF	6-7/195	White Station (TN)
37	Robert Johnson	SG	6-3/170	Benedictine School (VA)
38	Malik Pope	SF	6-8/210	Laguna Creek (CA)
39	Dion Wiley	SG	6-4/175	Potomac (MD)	Maryland
40	Angel Delgado	PF	6-8/215	Huntington Prep (WV)	Seton Hall
41	Quentin Snider	PG	6-1/150	Ballard (KY)
42	James Blackmon	SG	6-2/170	Marion (IN)
43	Goodluck Okonoboh	C	6-9/205	Wilbraham & Monson (MA)
44	Trevon Bluiett	SF	6-5/185	Park Tudor School (IN)
45	Phil Booth	SG	6-4/180	Mount Saint Joseph (MD)	Villanova
46	L.J. Peak	SG	6-4/183	Gaffney (SC)	Georgetown
47	Parker Jackson-Cartwright	PG	5-9/145	Loyola (CA)	Arizona
48	Brandone Francis	SG	6-4/205	Arlington County Day (FL)	Florida
49	Chris Chiozza	PG	5-10/155	White Station (TN)	Florida
50	Caleb Martin	SF	6-6/175	Davie County (NC)	NC State
51	Elbert Robinson	C	6-11/260	Lakeview Centennial (TX)
52	Terry Larrier	SF	6-7/185	Phelps School (NY)
53	Isaac Copeland	PF	6-7/185	Brewster Academy (NH)	Georgetown
54	Namon Wright	SG	6-5/185	Findlay Prep (NV)
55	Abdul Malik Abu	PF	6-8/235	Kimball Union Academy (NH)
56	Brekkott Chapman	PF	6-8/200	Roy (UT)	Utah
57	Ben Bentil	PF	6-8/220	St. Andrews (DE)
58	T.J. Haws	PG	6-3/170	Lone Peak (UT)	BYU
59	Grayson Allen	SG	6-3/180	Providence School (FL)	Duke
60	Jaylen Johnson	PF	6-8/200	Ypsilanti (MI)
61	Paul White	PF	6-8/210	Whitney Young (IL)
62	Lourawls Nairn	PG	5-10/175	Sunrise Christian Academy (KS)
63	Jae'sean Tate	SF	6-5/205	Central (OH)	Ohio State
64	Shelton Mitchell	PG	6-3/180	Cutherberson (NC)	Wake Forest
65	Ahmed Hill	SG	6-4/180	Aquinas (GA)
66	Kaleb Joseph	PG	6-2/185	Cushing Academy (MA)	Syracuse
67	Donte Grantham	SF	6-6/200	Hargrave Military Academy (VA)
68	Ahmaad Rorie	PG	5-10/170	Lincoln (WA)	California
69	Tadric Jackson	SG	6-2/190	Tift County (GA)	Georgia Tech
70	Dominique Collier	PG	6-1/160	Denver East (CO)	Colorado
71	Anton Beard	PG	6-0/175	Parkview (AR)	Arkansas
72	Devin Mitchell	SG	6-3/165	Collins Hill (GA)
73	Jalen Lindsey	SF	6-6/180	Huntington Prep (WV)	Providence
74	Jakeenan Gant	PF	6-8/200	Effingham County (GA)	Missouri
75	B.J. Stith	SF	6-5/175	Oak Hill Academy (VA)	Virginia
76	Paschal Chukwu	C	7-1/235	Fairfield College Prep (CT)
77	Vic Law	SF	6-7/185	St. Rita's (IL)	Northwestern
78	Riley LaChance	SG	6-3/170	Central HS (WI)
79	Alex Robinson	PG	6-1/160	Timberview (TX)
80	Chinanu Onuaku	C	6-9/210	Riverdale Baptist (MD)
81	Zylan Cheatham	PF	6-7/200	South Mountain (AZ)
82	Jared Terrell	SG	6-3/205	Brewster Academy (NH)
83	Trayvon Reed	C	7-0/215	Shiloh (GA)
84	Malek Harris	SF	6-7/200	Sandburg (IL)	Marquette
85	Khadeem Lattin	C	6-9/190	Home School (TX)
86	Sandy Cohen	SG	6-5/170	Seymour (WI)	Marquette
87	Jared Nickens	SF	6-6/170	Westtown School (PA)	Maryland
88	Mikal Bridges	SF	6-6/185	Great Valley (PA)	Villanova
89	Lamonte Bearden	PG	6-1/165	Germantown (WI)
90	Obi Enechionyia	PF	6-9/195	Saint James School (MD)
91	Tra Holder	PG	6-1/170	Brentwood (CA)	Arizona State
92	Makinde London	PF	6-9/210	Summit (TN)
93	Tariq Owens	PF	6-8/185	St. Vincent Pallotti (MD)	Ohio
94	Nick Babb	SG	6-4/195	Martin (TX)	Arkansas
95	Jordan Barnett	SF	6-7/180	Christian Brothers College	Texas
96	Robert Cartwright	PG	6-3/165	Flintridge Prep School (CA)
97	Larry Austin	PG	6-1/165	Lanphier (IL)	Tennessee
98	josh cunningham	SF	6-7/180	Morgan Park (IL)
99	Adonys Henriquez	PG	6-5/190	Orlando Christian Prep (FL)	Miami
100	Thomas Welsh	C	7-0/245	Loyola (CA)
101	Darrell Davis	PG	6/4/170	Douglass Academy (MI)
102	Chris Sandifer	SG	6-4/175	Juniper Serra (CA)	Missouri
103	Andre Adams	PF	6-9/205	Westview (AZ
104	Riley Norris	SF	6-7/185	Albertville (AL)	Alabama
105	Payton Dastrup	C	6-10/230	Mountain View (AZ)

Summer Awards: Part 1

Most Dominant Player:

Stanley Johnson, 6’7”, 2014, F, Oakland Soldiers

Stanley Johnson - Adidas / Kelly Kline

A well-known name on the circuit for many years, Stanley Johnson was the most dominant player from beginning to end this past spring and summer. He averaged 18.5 points and 9.8 rebounds per game during the EYBL regular season while leading his Oakland AAU team to the Peach Jam. In 18 regular season games, Johnson scored in double figures the first 17 games before playing limited minutes in the final game. 

During the Peach Jam, Johnson stepped his game up even more in front of a group of college coaches that included John Calipari, Sean Miller, Steve Alford, and Andy Enfeld. He was pretty much un-guardable in his five games averaging 25.6 points and 10.2 rebounds per game. In a 33 point game, Johnson was hitting from the outside and driving to the basket at will. In his next game he went for 24 points against the EYBL runner-up in CP3 which also included a game winning floater. 

While his AAU team didn’t repeat at the Peach Jam, Johnson did lead his USA West team to the Nike Global Challenge title one week later when he scored a team high 23 points and added in 11 rebounds. To cap off his stellar summer play he averaged 11.5 points and 2.5 assists per game at the Adidas Nations where he played a key part in helping his team advance to the televised finals. 

Johnson made his name as a freshman at Mater Dei, but increased his skill set year over year. As a sophomore he gave Shabazz Muhammed fits on the defensive end by using his strength and power. A year and a half later, Johnson now knows how to use his strength on the offensive end as well. By combining his strength and quickness with an improved ability to handle the ball, Johnson played a fair amount of point-forward over the past few months. 

The main weakness and criticism of Johnson pertains to his outside shooting. Never known as a strong shooter, Johnson made strides over the past few months and shot 30% from the three point line throughout EYBL play. 

Despite his inconsistencies on the perimeters, Johnson was still the toughest player to guard on the AAU scene. He used his quickness to beat defenders off the dribble and his strength to finish at the rim time and time again.  He attended events all over the country and never shied away from the competition while dominating any defender that tried to slow him down.

Stock Riser:

Myles Turner, 6’11, C, 2014, Texas Select

This one comes as no surprise as Myles Turner burst onto the scene in April and quickly made his way into a top 10 player nationally. In a class lacking dominant big men, Turner’s ability to run the floor, shoot from the outside, and block shots certainly stood out. He began his ascent at several of the Under Armour events in the spring and he solidified his reputation at the NBPA camp in June. Turner tested his skills against Cliff Alexander and Jahlil Okafor in July and August and more than held his own. After having a lengthy list of suitors in July, Turner cut his list down to a manageable eight schools:  Arizona, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, and Texas. 

Myles Turner - Adidas / Kelly Kline

Standing close to 7 feet, Turner sports a nice touch from outside of the paint and with his long arms has a jump shot that can’t be blocked. He can hit mid-range shots and three’s from all areas of the floor. He runs the court well and establishes a nice post presence in the block where he can finish in the paint or shoot a quick turnaround shot off the glass. On the defensive side of the ball, Turner patrols the paint and blocks shots while keeping the majority in play. In his first match-up with Alexander, Turner bothered him with his length and forced him into a 5-15 performance.

While Turner improved dramatically in such a short time span, he still has weaknesses that need addressing. The first one is his actual strength. While Turner bothered Alexander with his length, he also struggled when it came time to bang bodies down low. Alexander muscled up Turner for several of his baskets. Also, Turner can tend to float around the perimeter for long stretches on the offensive end. 

Despite these areas of improvement, Turner’s stock was scorching hot during the spring and summer.

Mr. Turnaround:

D’Angelo Russell, 6’4” G, 2014, Each 1 Teach 1

A Louisville native, Russell is fresh off a stellar month July and August and was recently featured in Sports Illustrated’s “Faces in the Crowd” for his play. While the summer ended on a high note for Russell, the last five months were definitely a roller coaster ride. 

He started the AAU season just after helping Montverde Academy win the prestigious National High School Invitational championship where he played in the same backcourt as top ranked point guard Kasey Hill. Last year, Russell teamed up with Quentin Snider on the Louisville Magic 16U team that ran a version of “40 minutes from hell.” While Russell could have gone for a 3-peat at the Adidas Invitational, he decided to switch allegiances and joined up with a new AAU program in the Florida based Each 1 Teach 1. High expectations were created as Russell teamed up with future UNC point guard Joel Berry to form a dynamic backcourt.  

Russell - Adidas / Kelly Kline

A seamless transition to new surroundings was expected; however that was far from reality as Russell struggled mightily in his first few Nike tournaments. In the two April live periods, Russell struggled to adapt to his role on a new AAU team. In a total of eight games that took place in L.A. and Hampton, Russell averaged a solid 12.6 points per game which came from shooting just 35% from the field and 20% from the three point line (8-40).

A few weeks later in May, Russell began to round himself into form and averaged 15.8 points per game on 57% shooting as his team went 4-0 in Dallas. His play improved and he decided to end his recruitment early by choosing to play for Thad Matta and the Ohio State Buckeyes. With the pressure off of him to pick a school, his play was expected to continue to improve. This was not the case when he attended the NBPA Camp in late June. At this camp, Russell averaged five points per game over a three game stint. While this performance was nothing to write home about, it was also the last time Russell would struggle on the court.

In July, Russell’s play took off and he showed why he was considered one of the top shooting guards in his class. During the Peach Jam, he was one of the main pieces of a championship team that went 8-0 in playoff and pool play. Over this four day stretch, he averaged 14.1 points per game while shooting 49% from the field and 36% from three. While his scoring noticeably picked up, he also led with his all around skill set by averaging 5.8 rebounds and 5.9 assists. In the semi-finals he recorded the lone triple double in the EYBL season with 15 points, 11 rebounds, and 12 assists. 

A few days later at the Nike Global Challenge, Russell averaged a team high 19.8 points per game on 54% shooting and won co-MVP of the tournament as his team lost by three points in the finals. After a stellar July, Russell finished off his summer in L.A. at Adidas Nations. He took charge of his senior laden USA team and became the teams’ alpha dog on the offensive end early on. He played with a confidence and aggressiveness not seen in April and was one of the main reasons his team won the championship. Throughout the event he averaged 13.6 points per game and knocked in three’s from the wings and mid-range jump shots to go along with his athletic drives to the basket. 

After years of playing with a different AAU team, it took Russell awhile to get going. He finished off his summer in the exact same gym as where he started four months earlier. It’s safe to say that once he settled into his new surroundings his confidence soared and as did his play.

Scouting Report