NBA Draft: Potential vs. Production

	MIN	FGM-FGA	FG%	FTM-FTA	FT%	REB	AST	BLK	STL	TO	PTS
Player A	28.1	5.7-10.4	54.7%	4.4-5.7	76.3%	7.2	0.6	1.2	0.7	1.4	15.7
Player B	31.8	5.3-9.1	58.4%	2.9-4.0	73.2%	8.2	1.3	1.9	0.5	2.1	13.6

Comparing the stats above it appears as though the season totals for Player A and B are pretty similar. Player B averaged slightly higher minutes, rebounds, assists, and blocks per game, while Player A averaged two more points, less turnovers, and a better free throw percentage. Both players are expected to get drafted in the upcoming lottery; however NBA scouts view the two players through entirely different lenses, despite the similarity in stats. Player A is viewed as a “safe pick” with “limited upside”, while Player B has been climbing up the mock drafts in recent weeks based on his “potential” and “upside.”

Player A is Tyler Zeller, a seven-footer from North Carolina, while Player B is Meyers Leonard, a seven-footer from Illinois. The stats above are from Zeller’s junior year along with Leonard’s most recent sophomore campaign. In recent days, mock drafts have had Leonard going anywhere from 8-17, while Zeller has been routinely placed in the 12-16 range. Let’s take an in-depth look at the two big men’s careers and their NBA futures.

Tyler Zeller (7’0” / 247 lbs / 22)

Zeller is currently coming off a spectacular senior season where he led UNC to a #1 seed while being named ACC player of the year and second team All-American. Zeller finished the year averaging 16.3 ppg and 9.6 rbg and was the one consistent offensive threat throughout the year for the uber talented Heels. Here is a look at Zeller’s stats over his four year career and the overall steady increase in performance:

Go to move: The right hook

 

SEASON	MIN	FGM-FGA	FG%	FTM-FTA	FT%	REB	AST	BLK	STL	TO	PTS
2011-12	28.2	5.8-10.5	55.3%	4.8-5.9	80.8%	9.6	0.9	1.5	0.9	1.9	16.3
2010-11	28.1	5.7-10.4	54.7%	4.4-5.7	76.3%	7.2	0.6	1.2	0.7	1.4	15.7
2009-10	17.4	3.7-7.1	52.1%	1.9-2.7	72.2%	4.6	0.3	0.9	0.5	1.3	9.3
2008-09	7.8	1.1-2.4	47.2%	0.9-1.1	76.5%	2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.5	3.1

Freshman Year:

Heading into the 2008-09 season, Ed Davis and Tyler Zeller were the prized big men recruits that were supposed to help Psycho T and crew win a championship. While most people remember Ed Davis as the shot blocking 6^th man from that team, they forget that Zeller was given the starting nod to start off the season with Hansbrough sidelined by injury. Zeller started the year off with a bang scoring 18 points against Pennsylvania in his first game. However, Zeller’s freshman season was pretty much over before it started when he suffered a fractured wrist on a break-away dunk against Kentucky in the 2^nd game of the season. Zeller decided not to red-shirt and ended up playing the final seven regular season games, along with the ACC and NCAA tournament games. Despite returning, Zeller struggled to find his niche and only played double digit minutes in two blowout games while watching his teammates cruise to a title.

Sophomore Year:

Zeller more than doubled his minutes per game from eight to 17, while increasing his scoring and rebounding production. Zeller had his moments like the time he scored 16 points in 15 minutes against Texas. He eventually suffered a stress fracture in his foot that caused him to miss 10 ACC games.  The Heels were in disarray all year and struggled mightily with Larry Drew Jr. at the point, despite only being one year removed from a championship and lost in the NIT finals. Between freak injuries and sub-par point guard play, it was a forgettable first two seasons for Zeller.  

Junior Year:

This was the first year that Zeller was able to stay healthy, however, even his junior year could not be deemed a normal season. Embattled point guard Larry Drew started the first half of the season until the team suffered a blow-out loss at Georgia Tech. Freshman Kendall Marshall was rewarded with the starting spot and quickly turned the Heels around. Zeller had his games while Drew was running the point, including a dominant 27 and 11 performance in a win against Kentucky, however his game matured as soon as Marshall took over the reins. UNC went 12-1 over their final 13 regular season ACC games and Zeller scored in double figures in every game but two. When it came time for the NCAA tournament, Zeller stepped his game up to a different level and averaged almost 26 points and 9 rebounds while leading the Heels to an Elite 8 run. In his first full collegiate season, Zeller put up impressive numbers and established himself as one of the top centers in the game behind his ability to run the floor and soft touch around the hoop.

Senior Year:

Fans expected Zeller to start off his senior year the same way he finished his junior year which was not the case. After some early season out of conference struggles, Zeller dominated the ACC on his way to winning the player of the year and scoring in double figures 15 out of 16 times. Zeller put on some dominant performances such as 19 and 10 in Cameron Indoor, 30 and 8 against Maryland (including 20-23 free throws), and 20 and 22 against Ohio. Zeller’s minutes stayed relatively consistent with his junior year, however he was able to increase his points per game and significantly increase his rebounding and free throw percentage despite facing constant double teams.

Meyers Leonard (7’0” / 250 / 20)

When talking about Meyers Leonard, NBA personnel all use the key buzz words associated with hot prospects such as “upside”, “length”, and “leaping ability”. Leonard’s draft stock soared recently after measurement and combine testing at the Chicago pre draft camp where he showed off his height (almost 7 feet without shoes), length (a 7’3 wingspan), leaping ability (30 inch vertical) and strength (19 bench press reps). Also contributing to this rise was the significant increase in production shown by Leonard during his freshman to sophomore seasons.

Dunks were seen a lot more last year

SEASON	MIN	FGM-FGA	FG%	FTM-FTA	FT%	REB	AST	BLK	STL	PF	PTS
2011-12	31.8	5.3-9.1	58.4%	2.9-4.0	73.2%	8.2	1.3	1.9	0.5	2.9	13.6
2010-11	8.2	0.8-1.8	48.3%	0.4-0.5	70.6%	1.2	0.2	0.4	0.2	1.5	2.1

Leonard’s minutes increased significantly during 2011-12, as did his total points and rebounds per game. Leonard only received honorable mention All Big Ten during the year, partly due to the sub- par season suffered by Illinois and their 2-12 record in the final 14 games. The lack of success by the Illini this past season did nothing to quell the hype around the 7 foot center though.

Shooting up the mock drafts subsequent to the Chicago pre draft combine was not the first time Leonard climbed the rankings. Leonard played high school ball in a small southern Illinois town that competed in the state’s 2A division. As a freshman, Leonard was 6’4 before sprouting up to a 6’10 sophomore. Scout.com had Leonard ranked 43^rd in the country after his sophomore year. Leonard steadily continued to climb up the rankings and was ranked 29^th in the country after his junior year where it was stated that “he’s clearly one of the most improved big men in the class of 2010 since this time last year.” Leonard finished off his high school career with a 2A state championship, while being ranked 19^th overall in the class of 2010, which was good enough to garner a 5-star ranking.

Freshman Year:

Despite his steady climb up the high school rankings, Leonard was not ready to contribute much during his inaugural big 10 season averaging only 8 minutes a game. In the last 10 games of 2010-11, Leonard did not score a single point in seven of those games. Despite the lack of playing time, Leonard joined the U-19 US team for the summer and gained invaluable experience. The US finished in a disappointing 5^th place, however Leonard averaged 6.9 ppg and 5.2 rbg which gave him confidence heading into his second season in Champaign.

Sophomore Year:

With increased playing time, Leonard produced some dominant performances such as the 22 and 11 he put up against Richmond in November. However, he didn’t start to turn the corner until late-December when he had three double-doubles in a row against Cornell, Missouri, and Minnesota. Leonard, for the most part played well throughout the Big 10 season despite some bouts with inconsistency. Some games resulted in double-doubles while others resulted in 4 point, 6 rebound performances with only a few shot attempts. As the Illini tried to fight for former coach Bruce Weber’s job, Leonard displayed some of the potential that scouts and coaches had previously seen in him. In the last 6 games of his Illini career, Leonard averaged 36.4 minutes, 17.4 points and 9.2 rebounds. 

NBA Outlook:

As stated earlier, most NBA scouts predict that Zeller will be a safe pick and “ready to contribute as a low reward prospect.” Draft Express noted that Zeller’s weaknesses include length, strength, and the lack of elite athleticism. While Zeller measured 6’11.25 without shoes, he only had a 7’0 foot reach. That being said, Zeller was never known as a shot-blocker at UNC averaging 1.5 per game as a senior. Zeller left the shot blocking to his teammate John Henson, and instead became a master at drawing charges in the paint. Zeller led UNC in charges taken and was rarely seen out of position or flopping to draw an offensive foul. As seen with the Miami Heat’s defense during the NBA finals, it can be more important to establish good help side defense in the paint than it is to block shots. On the offensive side, Zeller is the best big man in the draft at running the floor, which he mastered in Roy Williams’ fast paced offense. He also has mastered the righty or lefty quick hook, his go to move in college. While this shot starts from the hip, he gets the shot off quickly and always uses his outside shoulder to protect the ball from the defender. Zeller also possesses a soft touch from the outside, despite not showing off this skill much in school. Zeller showed a nice touch at the free throw line shooting 81%, but also shot was 16-32 for jump shots, and 5-10 from shots between 17 feet and the 3 point line. This is the one area that will allow Zeller to develop into a productive big man from Day 1. 

On the other hand, scouts are enamored with the production increase that Leonard showed between his freshman and sophomore year. In addition to the improvement made, Leonard possesses the physical tools that make GM’s envision a potentially franchise type center. Leonard used his athleticism this past year to turn into a formidable shot blocker at 1.9 per game and also has a nice touch from the free throw line for a big man (73%). Draft Express noted that Leonard’s weaknesses include his consistency, mental toughness, while being raw offensively and struggling with post position. 

Leonard struggled to adapt to the Big 10 after playing 2A ball in high school and will most likely face the same problems playing in the NBA as a rookie. Leonard is prime for a season spent bouncing between the NBA and the D-League which could stunt his long-term growth. While Leonard’s game screams out upside and potential, a smart GM should take the ACC conference player of the year that can run the floor, has go-to post moves, and is an underrated outside shooter. 

ESPN Analyst Jay Bilas stated that the common perception between these two is that “Leonard is a sophomore getting better right now. Zeller is a senior; he is like inventory that gets marked down because they’ve had it in the show room for four years.” Bilas noted that this assessment was unfair to Zeller especially considering that Zeller’s freshman year was ruined by a freak injury and his sophomore year was ruined due to a stress fracture and a team in disarray. As shown above, Zeller and Leonard both made huge jumps when they received a significant amount of playing time. Zeller stuck around college for an additional year after his initial improvement while Leonard is making the leap to the NBA. Zeller’s game grew leaps and bounds in the one additional year and will be ready to contribute in the NBA immediately. While it might be tantalizing to think of the “upside” and “potential” Leonard possesses, his ability to contribute is widely debated. Zeller will be more valuable at the beginning of his rookie contract and most likely at the end of his rookie contract as well. 

Potential versus Production. In this case, take Tyler Zeller and reap the rewards of a productive draft pick.