Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Commitment Odds



September featured a plethora of commitments from top 100 players, but the first week of October features the heavy hitters. The Harrison twins are set to make their announcement tomorrow on ESPNU, while Julius Randle recently trimmed his suitor list down to 6, and Jabari Parker will be getting ready to cut his list down to 5. First off, let’s take a look at the Harrison twins:

The Twins:
Andrew Harrison is currently the top ranked point guard in the country by Scout.com (2nd overall) and his brother Aaron Harrison is the top ranked shooting guard in the county (3rd overall). While Andrew spent his high school career as the higher ranked brother, Aaron proved he is not far behind with a strong summer showing that saw him move up from his number eight ranking in the spring. With both players planning to commit together to the same school, this commitment will lay the ground work for a school’s top ranked recruiting class. There are two main players in this one: Kentucky and Maryland, with SMU being a long shot.

Maryland:
-Under Armour connection. New to the grassroots scene, UA established the Houston Defenders as one of their flagship AAU programs. While UA and CEO Kevin Plank started to outfit college basketball programs over the years, there is no doubt that the University of Maryland is their golden child.
-Shaquille Cleare., A 6’9, 280 lb center begins his freshman year with the Terps and is a Houston native and recent AAU teammate with the Harrison twins. This trio formed a strong inside / outside combination during the 2011 summer circuit.
-Maryland coaching staff. Head coach Mark Turgeon began his courtship of the twins during his Texas A&M days, while assistant coach Bino Ranson and the Harrison’s father have a tight relationship. The Maryland coaching staff was at every possible AAU game over the summer with Ranson often being seen standing directly under the basket while all of the other college coaches sat in the bleachers.

Kentucky:
-Defending National Champions
-Calipari – Calipari quickly made Kentucky into the “hot” school that pumps out top draft picks year after year. He recruits top-10 talent every year and it is very hard for a kid to say no to the Wildcats.
-Connections – Nike, WWW, Jay Z, Drake 

The Odds:
Kentucky -130
Maryland -105
SMU +900
While Maryland has the family connections and the Under Armour brand, it will most likely be too hard for the twins to turn down Kentucky and the chance to become the next Wildcats picked atop the NBA draft.

Julius Randle:
After conducting all of his in-home visits, Randle, the 6’8” man-child recently trimmed his list down to the following six schools: Kentucky, Florida, Kansas, NC State, Texas, and Oklahoma. Many people were surprised that Duke and UNC were cut from his list considering that AAU teammate Matt Jones will be attending Duke and UNC coach Roy Williams prioritized Randle as his top recruit over the past two summers.

The Odds:
Kentucky – 175 – Randle has already taken a visit to Kentucky while Calipari most likely pitched Randle on being featured on a national contending team that produces top draft picks year after year.

Florida -125 – Billy Donovan has Randle in for an official visit this weekend for the LSU football game. While the atmosphere will be crazy, Florida’s other two top 10 commits, point guard Kasey Hill and PF/C Chris Walker will go to work selling Randle on the idea of playing with them in Gainesville.  Between the football game and already having the top ranked recruiting class, Florida has put itself in a very good position this weekend.

Kansas +120 – Never count out Bill Self. Throw in the fact that Randle’s high school teammate Zach Peters just began his freshman year in Lawrence. Look for Self to pitch Randle on having the same type of effect as Thomas Robinson did this past season.

Texas +130 – In state kid going to play for the flagship program in Texas. 

NC State +175 –While Purvis and Randle are good buddies; it’s hard to see a top recruit picking Raleigh as his basketball destination. The Wolfpack are currently another “hot” school, but they are still coming off a season where they barely made the NCAA tournament.

Oklahoma +800 – Huge underdog.

Jabari Parker:
Still the top ranked player in the class of 2013, Parker’s name has not been discussed as much as it was during the spring when he was coming off a 3rd state championship, player of the year, and a Sports Illustrated cover. Parker missed most of June and July due to an injury and was forced to watch Andrew Wiggins become the top ranked player in the high school ranks. Parker has a long list of suitors from coast to coast and will look to trim his list down to 5 soon enough. Duke and Michigan State already have visits, so let’s take a look at what schools could get to host Parker on an official visit.

The Odds:
Kansas -250 Kansas has been after Parker for awhile and with their prestige should receive an official.

Florida +120 Donovan can sell Parker on being the perfect fit to their already star studded class. Donovan already has a top pg and power forward, why not a wing to run the floor?

Stanford +200
BYU +200
DePaul +200 Stanford and BYU have all received unofficial visits from Parker in the past while DePaul is right in Parker’s back yard. He might want to explore other options for his official visits.

North Carolina +250 Roy Williams caught one of Parker’s high school games this past year; however besides that the recruitment has been pretty quite. If Roy could get Parker to take a visit to Chapel Hill, both Duke and Michigan State could be in trouble.

Connecticut – Uconn was added to Parker’s list with the announcement of head coach Kevin Ollie. Despite the positives of this coaching move, there are too many question marks around the state of UConn basketball right now. 

Commitments rolled in last month, however starting with the Harrison twin announcement the top ranked teams in 2013-14 will start to be known.