Robert Johnson Decision: The Odds

In late July 2012, Robert Johnson was coming off the bench for his DC Assault AAU team and was looking forward to his senior season at L.C. Bird high school just outside of Richmond, VA. At the time VCU and Shaka Smart were coming hard after the local product along with some other mid-majors such as Richmond, JMU, and East Carolina. Just over one year later Johnson is set to decide between Florida State, Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia. 

As a sophomore in high school, Johnson was known as one of the best shooters in Virginia. He led his L.C.Bird team in scoring and helped them to an appearance in the Virginia state championship where they fell to Florida guard Dorian Finney-Smith and his I.C. Norcom squad 54-45. In the loss, Johnson chipped in 10 points.

During his junior year, Johnson averaged a shade over 18 points per game and topped the 1,000 point mark as he earned all-district first team and All-Metro second team. While his team did not make it back to the state tournament, he did lead L.C. Bird to the regional semi-finals where they fell to Petersburg in a close contest.

After his junior year, Johnson made the choice to play AAU with DC Assault on the Under Armour circuit. He joined up with guards Nate Britt, Roddy Peters, and Nigel Johnson while playing under former Wizards and current Rutgers head coach Eddie Jordan. As both Britt and Peters were ACC bound, Johnson came off the bench during AAU play. Despite not starting, Johnson did have his moments especially when Peters re-injured his shoulder during the UA Summer Jam in Milwaukee. Playing against the Atlanta Celtics, Johnson provided a much needed boost and lit up the 2-3 zone the Celtics were playing. He showed off his shooting touch and was one of the more impressive players in the tournament.

While Johnson had various high majors sniffing around, a crucial decision soon changed his recruiting landscape. Before the 2012-13 school year Johnson transferred to Benedictine, a private school in Richmond. Along with the transfer, he also re-classified grades and played as a junior once more. During this season, Johnson was a key part of a Benedictine team that won the Virginia Independent schools championship. After the championship run, Johnson switched AAU teams as well and joined up with the local Boo Williams AAU squad that plays on the Nike EYBL circuit.

Johnson took the EYBL circuit by storm and went for 17 points in his first game with Boo Williams in L.A. and scored in double figures in all nine games during the first two live April recruiting sessions. Along with his double figure scoring, Johnson also dropped in 22 three’s at a 37% clip.

In late June, the buzz behind Johnson started to swell even more with his performance at the NBPA Top 100 Camp. Going against some of the most talented players in the country, Johnson averaged 10 points per game and caught the attention of most bystanders with his shooting and play at both guard positions.

Back on the AAU circuit in July, Johnson had his coming out party at the Peach Jam in front of every big named coach in college basketball. Playing against one of the title favorites in his first game, Johnson struggled throughout against the Mac Irvin Fire. With his team trailing in the final two minutes, Johnson came alive and scored at will including the go-ahead bucket. While his team was forced to forfeit its games due to the use of an ineligible player, Johnson still showcased his skills over the next four games. In front of Tom Crean and Roy Williams, Johnson went for 22 points a game and hit 16 out of 32 three’s. During the three day stretch, Johnson was one of the top performers and cemented his place as one of the best shooters in the class of 2014.

After careful consideration, Johnson eventually narrowed his list down to a final four and visited each school in a four week period beginning August 24th. Each school has its pros and cons and will make for a difficult decision for Johnson.

Odds:

North Carolina: +140: UNC has vaulted into the top spot over the past few days, but just barely. The school is within a close proximity of the Johnson household and gives Robert a chance to suit up for one of the college basketball blue bloods. He has been pitched on being the shooter the UNC needs to fill out the 2014 class. While UNC needs a shooter, they also already have one point guard and two wing players committed. The playing time issue has to be Johnson’s greatest concern regarding the Heels.

Virginia: +180: Tony Bennett and the Cavaliers are just a stone’s throw away from Richmond, VA. In his short tenure at UVA, Bennett has built a team that has a strong foundation for the future. If he committed, Johnson would be the main piece of the 2014 class to go along with BJ Stith. Ample playing time would await Johnson, but UVA plays at one of the slowest paces in college basketball. For someone that likes to get up and down, is this the type of system that Johnson wants to play in?

Indiana: +220: A few weeks ago it seemed like Indiana was the leader in the clubhouse. After the official visit, Tom Crean and Indiana stood in a great spot, but then Johnson continued on his college tour and the initial shine wore off. Despite being able to feature Johnson as the main recruit in 2014, all signs indicate that Indiana’s bluster has faded.

Florida State: +300: Despite having recruited Johnson the longest of the other three, the Noles come in as the large underdog. Ample playing time would await Johnson down in Tallahassee, but it will be tough for the Seminoles to overcome the prestige of North Carolina and Indiana along with the proximity of Virginia.

Terry Larrier and VCU

One day after taking an official visit to Virginia Commonwealth University, small forward Terry Larrier committed to play for Shaka Smart and the Rams. A fringe top 50 recruit, the 6’7” Larrier becomes Smart’s highest rated recruit throughout his tenure.

This past spring and summer Larrier vaulted up the recruiting rankings as he played for Team Scan on the Nike EYBL circuit. The Bronx native averaged 10.2 points and 5.8 rebounds per game in 17 regular season games and then duplicated his effort with 10.3 points per game throughout the Peach Jam.

A long and lanky wing, Larrier fits the HAVOC style preferred by Smart. He specializes in slashing to the basket for lay-ups and dunks and uses his 6’10” wing span to disrupt opponents on the defensive end. 

During the Dallas EYBL in May, Larrier’s stock rose after a solid performance over a four game period. One month later he was one of the most impressive talents at the Kevin Durant Skills Academy in Washington D.C. While the camp was littered with the top shooting guards and small forwards in the country, Larrier stood out during the scrimmages as he drove time and time again from the left wing for thunderous dunks down the lane.

While Larrier is known for his athletic forays to the basket, he does need to work on his ball-handling and shooting ability. He is more than capable of knocking down jump shots from 15-19 feet but shot only 23% from the three point line during the EYBL regular season. In the Peach Jam he increased his percentage to 36.4% while making one more three in 11 less games. 

With Larrier’s commitment, VCU now has three commitments in the class of 2014. Forward Justin Tillman from Michigan committed over Labor Day weekend and point guard Jonathan Williams declared in May. 

Locking up an athletic small forward was crucial for the VCU coaching staff after several early misses. Small forward Vic Law out of Chicago decided to stay local and play for Northwestern earlier on in the summer while Devin Robinson, a top 30 player nationally left VCU out of his top five. Robinson, a Richmond native had VCU at the top of his list before the AAU season began but after several stellar performances had schools such as Indiana, UConn, and Florida knocking on his door. 

VCU’s HAVOC style of play is perfect for Larrier and his skill set as both parties came to that realization after a timely official visit.    

Lamonte Bearden and Buffalo

Back in mid-July in Mequon, WI, senior point guard Lamonte Bearden turned out to be one of the top players in the stacked Under Armour Summer Jam tournament as he led his Wisconsin Swing AAU team to the semi-finals. While Bearden was busy winning converts with his play, Bobby Hurley, the newly name coach at Buffalo University and his assistant Nate Oats were parked on the bleacher seats throughout the five day event. In a surprise move Tuesday evening, Bearden announced that he had committed to Hurley and the Bulls.

Fresh off a disappointing 14-20 season the Bulls fired long time coach Reggie Witherspoon on March 15, 2013 and hired Rhode Island assistant Bobby Hurley less than two weeks later. It didn’t take long for Hurley and his staff to hit the AAU circuit as they were first spotted hanging out with the high major coaches at the Pitt Jam Fest in April. This trend continued in July where both Hurley and Oats were mixed in with many of the big name coaches at the Summer Jam. Their effort paid off by nabbing Bearden, the four star point guard straight out of the Midwest.

This past year, the 6’2” Bearden joined up with Indiana recruit Luke Fischer to help bring a second state championship and second straight 28-0 season back to Germantown, WI. During the year, Bearden averaged 13.1 points and 5.2 assists per game. 

After winning the state championship Bearden spent the spring and summer playing in AAU events primarily throughout the Midwest in addition to a trip to Las Vegas for the Fab 48. As noted above, Bearden led his team to the semi-finals during the second live recruiting session at the prestigious Summer Jam. He averaged 13 points per game and was very effective throughout the tournament at dribble penetration. Bearden likes to push the tempo and keep defenders off balance with his hesitation dribble. He can finish at the rim consistently and keeps defenders honest with his mid-range jump shot. While not on the same level athletically, the way Bearden dribbled the ball up the court and moved on offense was eerily reminiscent of future Florida point guard Kasey Hill.

Bearden was one of the top stock risers this past summer and the newly mined Buffalo staff cashed in with one of the surprise commitments of the year.