“The signal
is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth. “
In Nate
Silver’s best seller “The Signal and the Noise” he notes that television pundits
may as well be flipping a coin when it comes to predicting political events.
The same can now be said for college basketball media members and their
pre-conference predictions. When taking
a look back at the power 6 basketball conferences, not one Player of the Year
(POY) was selected correctly. The Big 10 had the strongest conference throughout
the year and similarly their media had the most accurate predictions. On the
other hand, there is the ACC which struggled as a whole and whose media became
distracted by “the noise.”
ACC:
With four
starters returning from a Sweet 16 team and the addition of 3 McDonald’s
All-Americans, most media members pegged NC State as the team to beat in the
ACC while naming CJ Leslie as the pre-season POY. What they failed to take into
account (or just wanted to ignore) was the fact that before their NCAA tourney
run NC State was just a bubble team coming off a 9-7 ACC season (with none of
those wins coming against tournament teams). While NC State improved to 11-7
this year, it turned out to be the other senior laden team in Miami who
replaced Duke and UNC atop the ACC standings with a 15-3 record. Miami won its
first two conference games on the road, but it wasn’t until a 27 point dismantling
of Duke that the team began to receive national recognition. Another surprise team
turned out to be UVA who came in at #7 in the pre-season polls. Behind the
stellar play of Joe Harris and the infamous “Pack Line D” the Cavaliers went
9-0 at home and earned a first round bye in the conference tournament.
|
ACC Pre-Season Standings
|
|
ACC Final Standings
|
|
Rank
|
School
|
Votes
|
|
Rank
|
School
|
Record
|
|
1
|
NC State (26)
|
601
|
|
1
|
Miami
|
15-3
|
|
2
|
Duke (21)
|
589
|
|
2
|
Duke
|
14-4
|
|
3
|
North Carolina
|
520
|
|
3
|
UNC
|
12-6
|
|
4
|
Florida State (6)
|
484
|
|
4
|
UVA
|
11-7
|
|
5
|
Miami
|
436
|
|
5
|
NC State
|
11-7
|
|
6
|
Maryland
|
341
|
|
6
|
FSU
|
9-9
|
|
7
|
Virginia
|
287
|
|
7
|
Maryland
|
8-10
|
|
8
|
Clemson
|
277
|
|
8
|
Boston College
|
7-11
|
|
9
|
Georgia Tech
|
189
|
|
9
|
Georgia Tech
|
6-12
|
|
10
|
Virginia Tech
|
169
|
|
10
|
Wake Forest
|
6-12
|
|
11
|
Wake Forest
|
151
|
|
11
|
Clemson
|
5-13
|
|
12
|
Boston College
|
90
|
|
12
|
Virginia Tech
|
4-14
|
As for the
pre-season ACC team, only one player who was initially pegged as a first teamer
by the media made it onto the actual all conference team. That player was
senior big man Miles Plumlee of Duke who led the league in first team votes but
fell short of winning the POY. That award went to Virginia Tech senior guard
Erick Green. Despite playing for the last place team in the conference Green
currently leads the nation in scoring with 25.4 points per game. Meanwhile,
pre-season player of the year CJ Leslie had an up and down season and finished
with a paltry 100.3 offensive efficiency rating. While one member from the
Wolfpack did make first team, it wasn’t Leslie or Lorenzo Brown as predicted,
but big man Richard Howell who led the league with a 14.6 offensive rebounding
percentage.
|
Pre-Season All ACC 1st Team
|
|
Name
|
School
|
Actual Team
|
|
CJ Leslie
|
NC State
|
3rd Team
|
|
Michael Snaer
|
FSU
|
3rd Team
|
|
James Michael McAdoo
|
UNC
|
2nd Team
|
|
Lorenzo Brown
|
NC State
|
2nd Team
|
|
Miles Plumlee
|
Duke
|
1st Team
|
|
|
|
|
Regular Season All ACC 1st Team
|
|
Name
|
School
|
|
|
Erick Green
|
Virginia Tech
|
|
|
Miles Plumlee
|
Duke
|
|
|
Shane Larkin
|
Miami
|
|
|
Joe Harris
|
UVA
|
|
|
Richard Howell
|
NC State
| |
Big East:
The Big East
pre-season coaches selected Louisville to win the last real Big East regular
season while selecting the leader of this team (Peyton Siva) as its POY. While
Louisville ended up with a 14-4 conference record, it was the Georgetown Hoyas
that took the tie breaker and claimed the regular season title. As such, it was
Georgetown’s leader, Otto Porter, who turned out to be the actual POY. After
losing on the road to South Florida to go 2-3 in the Big East, the Hoyas and
Porter responded by winning 11 games in a row and 12 out of 13 culminating with
a 61-39 win to clinch first place and end their storied rivalry with Syracuse.
During the 11 game win streak, Porter averaged 18.8 ppg and 7.3 rbg including a
game winner over UConn. Another big surprise in conference play included the
play of Marquette who also went 14-4 despite being projected as the 7th
place team. On the other hand, there was USF. After surprising everyone last
year with a bid to the NCAA tournament, USF regressed from a 12-6 conference
record to 3-15.
|
Big East Pre-Season Standings
|
|
Big East Final Standings
|
|
Rank
|
School
|
Votes
|
|
Rank
|
School
|
Record
|
|
1
|
Louisville (14)
|
196
|
|
1
|
Georgetown
|
14-4
|
|
2
|
Syracuse
|
175
|
|
2
|
Louisville
|
14-4
|
|
3
|
Notre Dame (1)
|
166
|
|
3
|
Marquette
|
14-4
|
|
4
|
Cincinnati
|
152
|
|
4
|
Pittsburgh
|
12-6
|
|
5
|
Georgetown
|
136
|
|
5
|
Notre Dame
|
11-7
|
|
6
|
Pittsburgh
|
132
|
|
6
|
Syracuse
|
11-7
|
|
7
|
Marquette
|
121
|
|
7
|
Connecticut
|
10-8
|
|
8
|
USF
|
96
|
|
8
|
Villanova
|
10-8
|
|
9
|
Connecticut
|
83
|
|
9
|
Cincinati
|
9-9
|
|
10
|
St. John’s
|
73
|
|
10
|
Providence
|
9-9
|
|
11
|
Rutgers
|
63
|
|
11
|
St. John's
|
8-10
|
|
12
|
Villanova
|
61
|
|
12
|
Rutgers
|
5-13
|
|
13
|
DePaul
|
48
|
|
13
|
Seton Hall
|
3-15
|
|
14
|
Seton Hall
|
42
|
|
14
|
South Florida
|
3-15
|
|
15
|
Providence
|
31
|
|
15
|
Depaul
|
2-15
|
While the
pre-season POY wasn’t predicted correctly, there were three players that made
both the pre and post season all conference teams: Porter, Jack Cooley, and
Gorgui Dieng. Meanwhile, Cincy guard Sean Kilpatrick made the second team while
being replaced by Louisville guard Russ Smith, while Providence guard Vincent
Council was replaced by his backcourt mate Bryce Cotton who averaged 19.6
points per game. Pre-season POY Peyton Siva made 3rd team all Big
East despite scoring less than three points in 33% of his conference games.
|
Pre-Season All Big East 1st Team
|
|
Name
|
School
|
Actual Team
|
|
Peyton Siva
|
Louisville
|
3rd Team
|
|
Jack Cooley
|
Notre Dame
|
1st Team
|
|
Vincent Council
|
Providence
|
-
|
|
Sean Kilpatrick
|
Cincinati
|
2nd Team
|
|
Gorgui Dieng
|
Louisville
|
1st Team
|
|
Otto Porter
|
Georgetown
|
1st Team
|
|
|
|
|
Regular Season All Big East 1st Team
|
|
Name
|
School
|
|
|
Otto Porter
|
Georgetown
|
|
|
Shabazz Napier
|
Uconn
|
|
|
Gorgui Dieng
|
Louisville
|
|
|
Russ Smith
|
Louisville
|
|
|
Jack Cooley
|
Notre Dame
|
|
|
Bryce Cotton
|
Providence
|
|
Big 10:
Whether it
was predicting standings or an all-conference team, the Big 10 prognosticators
outperformed their peers correctly picking Indiana to win the conference while
also selecting four out of five first team performers. Their only mishap was
selecting Cody Zeller as POY instead of Michigan’s Trey Burke. Along with Burke
and Zeller, Deshaun Thomas and Aaron Craft (*media selection) were selected
correctly to the first team. The lone
member of the pre-season team to not make the actual conference team was
Penn State’s Tim Frazier who suffered a ruptured Achilles back in November.
Last year Frazier averaged 18.8 ppg and 6.2 apg but not even a repeat of those
numbers might have kept him on the 1st team with the play of
Indiana’s Victor Oladipo. Despite losing out on player of the year accolades,
Oladipo had a dominant season for the Hoosiers on both the offensive and
defensive end while also improving his 3-point percentage from 20% to 46%
during the year.
Pre-Season All B10 1st Team
|
|
Name
|
School
|
Actual Team
|
|
Cody Zeller
|
Indiana
|
1st Team
|
|
Trey Burke
|
Michigan
|
1st Team
|
|
Aaron Craft
|
Ohio State
|
1st Team
|
|
Deshaun Thomas
|
Ohio State
|
1st Team
|
|
Tim Frazier
|
Penn State
|
-
|
|
|
|
|
Regular Season All B10 1st Team (Media)
|
|
Name
|
School
|
|
|
Trey Burke
|
Michigan
|
|
|
Victor Oladipo
|
Indiana
|
|
|
Cody Zeller
|
Indiana
|
|
|
Deshaun Thomas
|
Ohio State
|
|
|
Aaron Craft
|
Ohio State
|
|
While the
Hoosiers were correctly pegged to win the Big 10, the remaining teams were all
placed fairly consistently when compared to their actual performances as well.
Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Michigan finished either 13-5 or
12-6 and all were selected to finish within the top 5 pre-season. Iowa,
Minnesota, Purdue, and Illinois were properly slated in the next 6-9 grouping
as Iowa finished 9-9 and the other three teams tied at 8-10. The remaining
schools: Nebraska, Northwestern, and Penn State correctly finished at the bottom
of the barrel.
|
B10 Pre-Season Standings
|
|
B10 Final Standings
|
|
Rank
|
School
|
Votes
|
|
Rank
|
School
|
Record
|
|
1
|
Indiana
|
285
|
|
1
|
Indiana
|
14-4
|
|
2
|
Michigan
|
256
|
|
2
|
Ohio St.
|
13-5
|
|
3
|
Ohio St.
|
237
|
|
3
|
Michigan St.
|
13-5
|
|
4
|
Michigan St.
|
223
|
|
4
|
Wisconsin
|
12-6
|
|
5
|
Wisconsin
|
191
|
|
5
|
Michigan
|
12-6
|
|
6
|
Minnesota
|
159
|
|
6
|
Iowa
|
9-9
|
|
7
|
Iowa
|
134
|
|
7
|
Purdue
|
8-10
|
|
8
|
Purdue
|
121
|
|
8
|
Illinois
|
8-10
|
|
9
|
Illinois
|
90
|
|
9
|
Minnesota
|
8-10
|
|
10
|
Northwestern
|
89
|
|
10
|
Nebraska
|
5-13
|
|
11
|
Penn St.
|
62
|
|
11
|
Northwestern
|
4-14
|
|
12
|
Nebraska
|
25
|
|
12
|
Penn St.
|
2-16
|
Big XII:
Pretty much
everyone predicted Kansas to take home their 9th consecutive Big XII
championship, but no one predicted that a freshman from Oklahoma State would
take POY. Since 2006,
Kansas had not finished a Big XII regular season with more than 3 losses. This
year, Kansas lost three in a row after starting 7-0. While the three losses in
a row came as a surprise for the Lawrence faithful, it was the loss to lowly
TCU that was the big shocker. TCU came into the game winless in their Big XII
tenure and came out with the biggest upset of the year as 18 point underdogs.
While Kansas managed to right the ship and come away with the #1 seed, it was their
rival down the road that turned in a surprise. Bruce Weber came into Manhattan,
KS after getting fired from Illinois and inherited an experienced team that was
coming off a NCAA tournament bid and a 10-8 conference record. Weber guided
them to a 14-4 record and the two seed in the conference tournament while
picking up Coach of the Year. Also, Oklahoma
and Iowa State shrugged off low pre-season expectations and both finished 11-7.
The main disappointment in the league when compared to expectations involved
Texas who was forced to deal with the suspension of star Myck Kabango for the
first 12 conference games and finished 7-11 overall.
|
Big 12 Pre-Season Standings
|
|
Big 12 Final Standings
|
|
Rank
|
School
|
Votes
|
|
Rank
|
School
|
Record
|
|
1
|
Kansas (9)*
|
81
|
|
1
|
Kansas
|
14-4
|
|
2
|
Baylor (1)
|
63
|
|
2
|
Kansas St.
|
14-4
|
|
3
|
Oklahoma State
|
60
|
|
3
|
Oklahoma St.
|
13-5
|
|
4
|
Texas
|
58
|
|
4
|
Oklahoma
|
11-7
|
|
5
|
Kansas State
|
54
|
|
5
|
Iowa St.
|
11-7
|
|
6
|
West Virginia
|
45
|
|
6
|
Baylor
|
9-9
|
|
7
|
Oklahoma
|
34
|
|
7
|
Texas
|
7-11
|
|
8
|
Iowa State
|
28
|
|
8
|
West Virginia
|
6-12
|
|
9
|
Texas Tech
|
18
|
|
9
|
Texas Tech
|
3-15
|
|
10
|
TCU
|
9
|
|
10
|
TCU
|
2-16
|
The
prognosticators correctly predicted 3 of the first team Big XII performers but
they didn’t foresee one freshman and one red-shirt freshman dominating the
conference in Smart and Ben McLemore of Kansas. These two went back and forth
all year battling for POY and Smart won out averaging 15.1 ppg, 5.7 rbg, and
4.3 apg while McLemore averaged 16.7 ppg and 5.3 rbg. The three members that
were correctly predicted were Pierre Jackson, Jeff Withey, and Rodney McGruder
while Le’Bryan Nash made Honorable Mention and Kabongo was hurt by his NCAA
suspension.
|
Pre-Season All Big 12 1st Team
|
|
Name
|
School
|
Actual Team
|
|
Pierre Jackson
|
Baylor
|
1st Team
|
|
Jeff Withey
|
Kansas
|
1st Team
|
|
Rodney McGruder
|
Kansas St.
|
1st Team
|
|
Le' Bryan Nash
|
Oklahoma St.
|
Hon. Mention
|
|
Myck Kabongo
|
Texas
|
-
|
|
|
|
|
Regular Season All Big 12 1st Team
|
|
Name
|
School
|
|
|
Marcus Smart
|
Oklahoma St.
|
|
|
Pierre Jackson
|
Baylor
|
|
|
Jeff Withey
|
Kansas
|
|
|
Ben McLemore
|
Kansas
|
|
|
Rodney McGruder
|
Kansas St.
|
|
SEC:
Kentucky was
picked to repeat as the regular season champ while Phil Pressey earned the nod
as pre-season POY. Neither selection came to fruition as Florida dominated the
SEC throughout the year finishing with a +0.28 efficiency margin (most
statistically dominant season per John Gasaway) while Phil Pressey’s POY
campaign was shattered with a 2 point, 10 turnover performance in a 31 point
loss to Florida. The actual POY vote was up for grabs once freshman Nerlens
Noel tore his ACL and no single Florida player stood out from the crowd. With
no clear cut winner, the award went to Georgia sophomore Kentavious
Caldwell-Pope who became the first Georgia player to win the award since
Dominque Wilkins in 1981. Caldwell-Pope averaged 18 ppg and 6.9 rbg while
placing in the top 10 in nine of the 13 statistical categories tracked by the
SEC. With an eight player 1st Team, there weren’t too many
discrepancies when compared to the pre-season team as seen below.
|
Pre-Season All SEC 1st Team
|
|
Name
|
School
|
Actual Team
|
|
Phil Pressey
|
Missouri
|
1st Team
|
|
BJ Young
|
Arkansas
|
2nd Team
|
|
Kenny Boynton
|
Florida
|
2nd Team
|
|
Nerlens Neol
|
Kentucky
|
1st Team
|
|
Jarnell Stokes
|
Tennessee
|
2nd Team
|
|
|
|
|
Regular Season All SEC 1st Team (Coaches)
|
|
Name
|
School
|
|
|
Kentavious Caldwell
Pope
|
Georgia
|
|
|
Trevor Releford
|
Alabama
|
|
|
Erik Murphy
|
Florida
|
|
|
Nerlens Noel
|
UK
|
|
|
Johnny O' Bryant
|
LSU
|
|
|
Phil Pressey
|
Missouri
|
|
|
Jordan McRae
|
Tennessee
|
|
|
Elston Turner
|
Texas A&M
|
|
Despite not
having many discrepancies with the player predictions, the most glaring
surprise in terms of team performance was that of Ole Miss. Picked to finish in
7th place, Ole Miss started 6-0 before finishing with a 12-6 overall
record good enough for 3rd place.
|
SEC Pre-Season Standings
|
|
SEC Final Standings
|
|
Rank
|
School
|
Votes
|
|
Rank
|
School
|
Record
|
|
1
|
Kentucky
|
328
|
|
1
|
Florida
|
14-4
|
|
2
|
Florida
|
310
|
|
2
|
Kentucky
|
12-6
|
|
3
|
Missouri
|
286
|
|
3
|
Ole Miss
|
12-6
|
|
4
|
Tennessee
|
269
|
|
4
|
Alabama
|
12-6
|
|
5
|
Arkansas
|
226
|
|
5
|
Tennessee
|
11-7
|
|
6
|
Alabama
|
222
|
|
6
|
Missouri
|
11-7
|
|
7
|
Ole Miss
|
186
|
|
7
|
Arkansas
|
10-8
|
|
8
|
Georgia
|
149
|
|
8
|
Georgia
|
9-9
|
|
9
|
Texas A&M
|
122
|
|
9
|
LSU
|
9-9
|
|
10
|
Vanderbilt
|
120
|
|
10
|
Vanderbilt
|
8-10
|
|
11
|
LSU
|
116
|
|
11
|
Texas A&M
|
7-11
|
|
12
|
Auburn
|
95
|
|
12
|
South Carolina
|
4-14
|
|
13
|
South Carolina
|
54
|
|
13
|
Mississippi St.
|
4-14
|
|
14
|
Mississippi St.
|
37
|
|
14
|
Auburn
|
3-15
|
PAC 12
The Pac
12….where to begin? Coming off an embarrassing year where the regular season
champion (Washington) did not even make the NCAA tourney, there was nowhere to
go but up. And up it went, as in up tempo. After playing at a plodding pace the past few
years (not counting UW and Oregon St.) the rest of the conference decided to
join the party and as a whole averaged 66.1 possessions per game which led all
major conferences. One of the teams in the league that increased their
possessions by 5.5% per game won the league and might have gotten their coach
Ben Howland off the hot seat. Despite losing Josh Smith to a transfer, UCLA
successfully meshed its star freshman (Shabazz, Kyle Anderson, and Jordan
Adams) with the three UNC transfers (Larry Drew II and the Wear Twins) to win
the regular season and hold off pre-season favorite Arizona. Overall, Oregon
was the biggest surprise as the Ducks were picked to finish 7th in
the league, but came one game away from taking home first place. Oregon started
off hot winning its first seven league games before a foot injury to freshman
Dominic Artis occurred and Oregon limped down the stretch. Compared to last
year, the teams with the biggest increase in wins also had the biggest increase
in possessions per game (USC - 8 win increase and 9.6% more possessions per
game, UCLA -3 / 5.6%, and ASU – 3 / 2.8%).
|
Pac 12 Pre-Season Standings
|
|
Pac 12 Final Standings
|
|
Rank
|
School
|
Votes
|
|
Rank
|
School
|
Record
|
|
1
|
Arizona (15)
|
403
|
|
1
|
UCLA
|
13-5
|
|
2
|
UCLA (16)
|
402
|
|
2
|
California
|
12-6
|
|
3
|
California (3)
|
325
|
|
3
|
Oregon
|
12-6
|
|
4
|
Stanford
|
296
|
|
4
|
Arizona
|
12-6
|
|
5
|
Washington (2)
|
278
|
|
5
|
Colorado
|
10-8
|
|
6
|
Colorado
|
262
|
|
6
|
Washington
|
9-9
|
|
7
|
Oregon
|
217
|
|
7
|
USC
|
9-9
|
|
8
|
Oregon State
|
166
|
|
8
|
Stanford
|
9-9
|
|
9
|
USC
|
163
|
|
9
|
Arizona St.
|
9-9
|
|
10
|
Washington State
|
111
|
|
10
|
Utah
|
5-13
|
|
11
|
Arizona State
|
107
|
|
11
|
Washington St.
|
4-14
|
|
12
|
Utah
|
78
|
|
12
|
Oregon St.
|
4-14
|
As for the
pre-season Pac-12 team….well there was no official pre-season team; however in
order to make up for that, the media selected a 10 player first team to end the
season. Based on a comprehensive review of other media outlets (NBC, NY Times,
Bleacher Report, etc.) the pre-season POY ranged from Shabazz Muhammed to
Solomon Hill to Andre Roberson. While all of these players had solid seasons,
they were not as impressive as Cal’s Allen Crabbe’s season. Despite
the altercation with Mike Montgomery, Crabbe ended the year averaging 18.6 ppg
and 6 rbg.
|
Pre-Season All Pac-12 1st Team
|
|
Name
|
School
|
Actual Team
|
|
Solomon Hill
|
Arizona
|
-
|
|
Allen Crabbe
|
California
|
1st Team
|
|
Chasson Randle
|
Stanford
|
-
|
|
Andre Roberson
|
Colorado
|
1st Team
|
|
Brock Motum
|
Washington St.
|
2nd Team
|
|
|
|
|
Regular Season All Pac-12 1st Team (NBC)
|
|
Name
|
School
|
|
|
Allen Crabbe
|
California
|
|
|
Jahii Carson
|
Arizona St.
|
|
|
Spencer Dinwiddie
|
Colorado
|
|
|
Larry Drew II
|
UCLA
|
|
|
Solomon Hill
|
Arizona
|
|
|
Mark Lyons
|
Arizona
|
|
|
Shabazz Muhammed
|
UCLA
|
|
|
Dwight Powell
|
Stanford
|
|
|
Andre Roberson
|
Colorado
|
|
|
E.J. Singler
|
Oregon
|
|
When it came
time to predict a pre-season POY, not one of the major conferences accurately
predicted which player would perform the strongest throughout the regular
season. Despite this fact, overall conference and first team predictions were
fairly strong. While it won’t be easy to predict the correct tournament
champion this year, the Big 10 can take pride in their competitive play and
accurate predictions as tournament play begins.
