ACC Conference Preview: Tier 1

ACC play kicked off on December 6 with North Carolina State defeating Wake Forest by a 13 point margin. While both N.C. State and Notre Dame sit atop the conference standings with one win a piece the real conference play begins today with a six game slate. In the past two years, the ACC champion not only struggled during November and December but the two teams were not given any consideration in the pre-season. In 2012, Miami dominated the league going 15-3 and last year Virginia did the same going 16-2. Will a surprise team emerge this year? Probably not, but with the addition of Louisville there will be a plethora of interesting match-ups.

Tier 1 Teams:

Duke:

The Blue Devils enter ACC play undefeated with neutral court victories over Michigan State, Temple, Stanford, and Connecticut to go with a road win over Wisconsin. Last year Jabari Parker led the Blue Devils while finishing runner-up in the ACC POY voting. This year Jahlil Okafor, is the front runner for national player of the year averaging 18.8 points and 8.8 rebounds a game.

? Mark: The bench

Duke’s freshmen trio has surpassed expectations, but will their legs get heavy in March? Right now, Coach K only trusts three players off his bench and only junior Rasheed Sulaimon can be counted on consistently.

Toughest Test:

At Louisville (1/17), At Virginia (1/31)

Playing in front of the Cameron Crazies, Duke has gone undefeated at home the past two years. It looks like they could go three in a row with their toughest match-up coming against UNC on Feb. 18.

Virginia:

Top Wins: at Maryland, at VCU

What a year for the Cavaliers. After winning the ACC regular season title (16-2) and the ACC tournament title, the Cavs are sitting pretty with an undefeated record. This time last year they entered ACC play after a 35 point dismantling in Knoxville, but used their home-court and overall experience to capture an unexpected title. Everyone expected Malcolm Brogdon to excel this year, but junior Justin Anderson has captured the headlines with his 60% shooting from behind the arc and junior Anthony Gill might be the least talked about star in the nation considering he sits in 3^rd place for Ken Pomeroy’s player of the year.

? Mark: Daunting 3 game stretch

While Duke’s home court advantage is widely publicized, the Wahoo’s also have not lost a conference game in the past two years at the John Paul Jones arena. This year they face a daunting three game stretch with games against Duke (home), UNC (Away), and Louisville (Home). If they make it through this stretch UVA could be looking at a repeat and another number one seed.

Toughest Test:

Not including the three game stretch above, UVA starts its ACC play with Miami (1/3) and also heads to South Bend on 1/10. Last year, UVA beat the Irish by 15, but this is not last year’s Notre Dame squad.

Louisville:

Top Wins: Indiana (N), Ohio State (H)

The Cardinals basketball team should open up conference play like their football team did, with a win. Rick Pitino’s squad jumps up a level of play from the American conference and gets two games with UNC, but just one with both Duke and UVA. They only lost one game out of conference, but played a relatively weak slate. Point guard Chris Jones has been a source of criticism for fans given his play of late, but Terry Rozier and Wayne Blackshear will need to continue to step up and provide help to Montrezl Harrell.

? Mark: Go-to scorer

Terry Rozier is the team’s leading scorer at 17.1 points per game, but will he be the one to take the place of Russ Smith when it comes time for clutch baskets?

Toughest Test:

At Miami (2/3), At Virginia (2/7)

After welcoming UNC to the Yum! Center on Saturday, January 31, the Cardinals go down to Miami for a weekday road game and then head up to Charlottesville. Could the Miami game be a letdown / sandwich game?

All ACC Team:

Jahlil Okafor (Duke)

Montrezl Harrell (Louisville)

Jerian Grant (Notre Dame)

Marcus Paige (UNC)

Anthony Gill (Virginia)

All Freshmen Team:

Jahlil Okafor (Duke)

Tyus Jones (Duke)

Justise Winslow (Duke)

Donte Grantham (Clemson)

Xavier Rathan-Mayes (FSU)

2014-15 ACC Preview

ACC preview brought to you by Sean Moran and Stephen Kalayil:

Stephen Kalayil's Predictions; 

1. Louisville: In the toughest conference in college hoops, the Louisville Cardinals are my top team by the slimmest of margins. Replacing a player the caliber of Russ Smith is a tall order for most teams, but with budding sophomore star guard Terry Rozier and defensive ace, Chris Jones, the Cards backcourt might be better than last year. Obviously, the leader and preseason ACC POY Montrezl Harrell will be the key to this team. Harrell, known for his rim rocking jams and defensive intensity has added a mid range game to his arsenal. With that addition, I don’t see a big man in the country outside of Jahlil Okafor and Frank Kaminsky that could guard him one on one. Two big keys this season are the production of Wayne Blackshear in his senior season and the development of redshirt sophomore center Mangok Mathiang. If Blackshear and Mathiang pan out, the ACC better watch out. 

    

2. Duke:  Jahlil Okafor and Tyus Jones were just what Duke needed to become national title contenders. Okafor is projected as the #1 overall pick in the next NBA draft and Tyus Jones along with Quinn Cook will help from one of the best backcourts in the country.  Marshall Plumlee, Rasheed Sulaimon and Amile Jefferson along with Quinn Cook look to be the sage veterans that can mentor the freshman duo. Watch out for fellow freshman Justise Winslow and Grayson Allen to be solid contributors this year on a deep Duke squad.

3. UNC: Marcus Paige is easily the best scoring guard in the nation and will lead UNC to be a title contender. Paige averaged 18.7 PPG and had some of his best performances against high profile teams (Louisville, Kentucky, Duke, Syracuse).   The incoming class of Joel Berry, Justin Jackson and Theo Pinson will make an immediate impact and help ease the loss of James Michael McAdoo and the memories of the mercurial PJ Hairston.  The big keys to UNC’s season are the development of uber athletic forward Brice Johnson and the ultra skilled Kennedy Meeks. Both players had their moments last season, but need to be consistent for the Tar Heels to succeed. Also, if Isaiah Hicks can live up to his potential, UNC will have all the weapons to win it all.  

4. Virginia: The defending ACC champs will be returning the majority of their Sweet Sixteen team and will be able to make a run at the Final Four under Tony Bennett. I think UVA has the experience and great coaching to be considered with Louisville, Duke and UNC, but I do think the losses of Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell are going to hurt much more than most think. Look for Malcolm Brogdon, Justin Anderson and Mike Tobey to step up and lead UVA to a deep tourney run.  

5. Syracuse: The Orange are going to be tough this season with senior big man Rakeem Christmas and sharpshooting Trevor Cooney leading the way.  The big factors are if talented freshman Chris McCullough and Kaleb Joseph are able to step in and contribute immediately. One interesting player to keep an eye on is Indiana transfer Ron Patterson. Patterson has a versatile game and could be able to contribute immediately.      

POY: Montrezl Harrell (UofL)

Freshman of the Year: Jahlil Okafor (Duke)

ALL-ACC:

Montrezl Harrell (UofL) (F)

Marcus Paige (UNC) (G)

Jahlil Okafor (Duke) (C)

Olivier Hanlan (BC) (F)

Jerian Grant (Notre Dame) (G)

Surprise Freshman: Xavier Rathan-Mayes (FSU)

Surprise Player: Angel Rodriguez (Miami)

Most interesting thing you are looking to learn about the conference.  I’m interested to see the slugfest between Louisville, UNC, Duke and UVA. All of those teams have the tools to not just get to the Final Four, but to cut down the nets in March. Okafor vs. Harrell, Rozier vs. Paige, Paige vs. Tyus Jones are all individual matchups that I’m hyped to see.  Also, I’m curious to see who emerges from the middle of the pack of the ACC. Florida State, NC State, Pitt, Notre Dame and Miami are all excellent teams that can cause problems and make the NCAA tourney.  

Sean Moran's Top 5 Questions:

1. Will the ACC as a whole be any good?

Yes, yes, I know the ACC is now the “top” conference in college hoops with prestigious programs such as Duke, North Carolina, Syracuse, and Louisville in the mix. Add in a Top 10 UVA squad and have some serious competition. I am talking about the other part of the ACC. The part that was pretty much god awful last year outside of four to six programs. Last year Miami, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, BC, and Virginia Tech were all pushovers. Three of those schools got new coaches and Miami and Notre Dame welcome back returning players (Jerian Grant) or talented transfers. For the ACC to truly be the top conference in the country the pushovers will need to step their game up.

2. Will Virginia lose a home game in conference play?

The Cavaliers have gone two straight years without a loss in conference play while playing in John Paul Jones Arena. That’s 17 straight games which covers last year’s ACC championship winning season and the 2012-13 NIT season. The Cavs last lost in late February and early March of 2012 when they fell to UNC 51-54 and then Florida State 60-63. The first big test will come on Saturday, January 31 with a home game against Duke. The Cavs then head to Chapel Hill before returning home to play Louisville. 

3. How will Louisville cope in the post Russ Smith era?

The last three years were good to Cards fans. A final four, a championship, and a sweet 16 performance with Russ Smith leading the way. Last year he averaged 18.2 points per game and took a team high 481 shots (100+ more than the next closest starter). Sure, the Cardinals have a lot of returning pieces to work with including Montrezl Harrell and projected first round pick in Terry Rozier, but the loss of a three year beast cannot be understated. Add in a move to the ACC and how will the Cards fare in their first year without Russ.

4. Which player will surprise?

Last year Malcolm Brogdon was the conference surprise. He was UVA’s most consistent scorer and finished on the second team all-conference list. Who could surprise this year? Let’s stay with the Cavs for a minute. I think Anthony Gill has a legit shot at making first team all-ACC. The athletic power forward really came on at the end of the year scoring in double figures for six straight games before a sweet 16 loss to Michigan State. If he didn’t get hurt in that game, the Cavs might have won. With more playing time, the former Top 100 recruit will certainly surprise some people. Other possibilities include Isaiah Hicks of UNC and Michael Young of Pittsburgh.

5. Can N.C. State replace the POY?

Last year N.C. State went 9-9 in conference play and snuck into the NCAA tourney. TJ Warren led the way as he pretty much carried the Wolfpack with 24.9 points per game on 52.5% shooting. This year some of the younger players will need to step up. Cat Barber has the keys to the car with the transfer of Tyler Lewis and Trevor Lacey is a key transfer. Can Kyle Washington, Beejay Anya, and Abdul-Malik Abu handle things down low?

Surprise predictions:

Anthony Gill makes first team All-ACC and Justin Jackson gives Okafor a run for his money in freshman of the year voting. 

How Good Are The Virginia Cavaliers?

How good are the Virginia Cavaliers? Are they the team that was un-ranked after putting up a less than impressive 9-4 performance out of conference? Or are they the team that led the ACC with a 0.22 efficiency margin en route to winning their first regular season title since 1981? While Tony Bennett’s squad has steadily improved over the past two months, the ACC tournament will clear up these questions.

How far will Joe and Tony go?

Big things were expected from the Cavaliers this year as they returned almost their entire team after a NIT run last year including a potential ACC player of the year in senior Joe Harris. The team was predicted to finish fourth in the ACC during the pre-season and many expected Virginia to make the NCAA tournament for just the second time in the Bennett area. 

Last Year:

The Wahoos put themselves in a position for a NCAA invitation last year, but their road woes were too much to overcome. After a court storming 73-68 victory over Duke to end February, Virginia promptly lost back to back road games to Boston College and Florida State by a total of three points. This was a microcosm of UVA’s season as they were dominant at home going 9-0 in conference play but just 2-7 on the road. Besides for a 93-81 loss to UNC where P.J. Hairston went off for 29 points all of their road losses came down to a few possessions at the end. Along with their conference road woes, Virginia also had several bad out of conference losses to George Mason, Delaware, and Old Dominion on their resume. Looking ahead to 2013-14 it wasn’t hard to see that UVA had a good chance to improve on their 11-7 ACC record with an additional year of experience.

Out of Conference:

It might be bit of an understatement to say that the first two months of the year were not too kind to Virginia. After an easy win against an undermanned JMU team, the Cavaliers lost to VCU on a game-ending three at John Paul Jones arena. They followed the heart breaking loss up with a win in Charlotte against a scrappy Davidson squad and then proceeded to win five more games in a row. Their six game winning streak came to an end at home in the ACC / Big 10 challenge. In one of the ugliest (if not the ugliest) games of the year, Virginia lost to Wisconsin 38-48. Yes, you read that correctly. Neither team broke 50 points as both teams combined to go 6-34 from the three point line. Add in a road loss at Wisconsin-Bay and a 35 point drubbing at the hands of Tennessee and things were not looking pretty heading into conference play. Along with the win over Davidson, UVA’s best win was a 76-73 victory over unranked SMU in Corpus Christi, TX.

ACC Play:

Joe Harris, a four-year starter at UVA who averaged 16 points per game as a junior was struggling as a senior. The native of Washington had several conversations with Tony Bennett prior to conference play and credits those talks in helping turn around Virginia’s fortunes as they “rededicated themselves to their “pack-line” man-to-man defense". UVA started conference play in Tallahassee and quickly vanquished their road demons with a 62-50 win at Florida State in a game where Harris only played two minutes due to an injury. The Cavaliers followed their road win up by blowing out Wake at home and then they went down to Raleigh and beat down N.C. State by 31 points in a game where they forced the ACC player of the year, TJ Warren into his worst game of the year (1-9 FG’s). Virginia suffered their first loss in game number four at Cameron Indoor. After being down for most of the game, UVA came roaring back but thanks to a fortuitous bounce on a Rasheed Sulaimon three the Blue Devils survived. The Cavaliers then reeled off 13 games in a row which included a conference clinching nineteen point home win over Syracuse. Virginia finished 16-2 in conference play with the 2012 UNC team being the last ACC team to finish with just  two losses as they went 14-2.

Discussion:

Virginia has always been known for its stellar defense in the Tony Bennett area. In 2012, Virginia ranked No. 6 in the country in Ken Pomeroy’s defensive ratings. In 2013 they finished at No. 24 and now in 2014 they sit at No. 4. Along with their pack-line defense, the Cavaliers limit transition points and as noted in Luke Winn’s power rankings they rank in Synergy’s top 10 in "lowest percentage of defensive possessions allowed in transition" and in the top 10 on hoop-math.com in "lowest percentage of initial field-goal attempts allowed in transition." Now that UVA’s defensive prowess is noted let’s look at a few other factors.

             ACC Play:

Much has been made about the unbalanced scheduling created by conference re-alignment. While it’s true that all Virginia can do is beat the teams in front of them (which they did) it is also true that the schedule makers were extremely kind. Virginia played one game against each of the top four teams in the conference going 3-1 with a buzzer beating road win at Pittsburgh and home wins against North Carolina and Syracuse. Their other 13 wins came against teams that are not expected to make the tournament. While the ACC is expanding the overall performance of the conference has deteriorated. In 2004, six out of the nine ACC teams made the tournament. Now, in 2014 only five teams out of 15 will make the tournament. 

Offense:

Virginia has slowly improved their offensive efficiency as they now sit at No. 26 in the country in KenPom’s rankings. They improved their points per possession in conference play from 1.05 in 2013 to 1.13 in 2014 and the Cavaliers also have a freshman point guard in London Perrantes that does not turn the ball over (4.5 A/TO rate). The Wahoos go eight deep and are led by red-shirt sophomore Malcolm Brogdon who shook off the rust from his red-shirt year and scored in double-figures in every single ACC game on his way to earning 2nd team All-Conference. Harris, while not getting as many shots as he did last year knocked in 42% of his three pointers. Add in Akil Mitchell, Mike Tobey, and Anthony Gill, Justin Anderson, and Evan Nolte coming off the bench and you get a well-rounded and versatile offensive team.

Tempo:

UVA loves to play slow and smart. Whether it was at Washington State or now in Charlottesville, a Tony Bennett led team has never averaged more than 63 possessions per game. The highest they have finished in the country was No. 317 in 2010 and they just finished the ACC regular season with a pace of 59.5. While this is how UVA is comfortable playing it could lead to an increased chance of a potential upset in the NCAA tournament. Less possessions equals less chances to put an inferior opponent away early on.

Tournament Play:

In Bennett’s first four years in C-Ville he has one tournament appearance in 2012 which ended with a 71-45 loss to Florida. In the ACC tournament, Bennett won his first every game in 2010 with a 68-62 victory over Boston College. In 2011, 2012, and 2013 the Cavaliers exited in the first round thanks to a monumental overtime collapse against Miami and back to back losses to N.C. State.

Overall:

Virginia is currently ranked as the No. 5 team in the KenPom rankings and they have an outside shot at a No. 1 seed. Are they worthy of this high billing? Probably not, given their best out of conference victory came against an unranked SMU team and while they went 16-2 in ACC play they were boosted by a strong home court (in conference play), an easy schedule, and a weak conference. That being said, the Cavaliers are definitely a team to be reckoned with due to their strong defense and well-rounded offensive team. The Cavaliers will be tested in Greensboro at the ACC tournament this weekend. If they can run the table against top 40 teams in a neutral court then maybe, they might just be for real.